Second Wave of Netbooks Near Release
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The biggest change in the new pint-sized laptops is what they won't have: Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) chips or a Microsoft Windows PC operating system, which dominate netbooks today.
The new netbooks, which use less energy, will run on the low-power ARM processor platform now used in nine out of 10 mobile phones, rather than Intel's x86-based Atom chip. The U.K.-based ARM Holdings licenses the chip technology.
As many as 10 ARM-based netbook models could hit the market this year, according to ARM, which declined to identify specific manufacturers. Major PC players and Asian contract manufacturers alike are interested, analysts say.
Enderle Group analyst Rob Enderle called the new netbooks "incredibly disruptive," saying: "This is a market that puts the existing PC structure at risk."
While analysts say it's not yet clear if consumers will embrace the ARM devices, interest has been galvanized by the emphasis on power efficiency, prices as low as $200 and the promise of anywhere, anytime computing on PCs small enough to slip into a purse.
What's sacrificed is users' familiarity with PC-based interfaces and systems and sheer processing power. The current $300-$400 Atom netbooks are already mainly good for just surfing the Web and less graphics-intensive applications.
"We're right in the middle of a huge shift in the market," said Eric Openshaw, U.S. technology leader for Deloitte.
Openshaw said non-Windows netbooks will need to demonstrate a simple and accessible user interface at the application level if they hope to gain traction with consumers.
Windows XP can't run on ARM, so the new netbooks will have Linux-based software, including, analysts and industry executives say, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) Android, which has been used so far in smartphones.
But don't count Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) out just yet. Although the software giant declined to comment when asked if it is planning an operating system for the new netbooks, analysts say it could easily enter the market if it chose.
Intel pointed out there are as yet no ARM netbooks on the market and that its Atom chip has a full year's head start.
"We're not slowing down, we fully expect competition and we continue to believe that Atom is the right choice for our customers and consumer," said spokesman Bill Calder.
The still-evolving netbook market is growing thick with players from all over the tech sector. Wireless carriers such as AT&T (NYSE: T) are helping lead the charge, while graphics chipmaker Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), wireless chipmaker Qualcomm (NASDAQ: QCOM) and Freescale Semiconductor have all designed ARM-based processors that can be used in netbooks.
The netbook phenomenon took off in 2008 to the tune of 11.7 million units, led by companies such as Acer and Asustek that were quick into the market. Nearly every PC vendor offers an Intel Atom-based netbook, including Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) and Dell (NASDAQ: DELL).
[cob:Special_Report]Analysts forecast 20 million to 30 million netbooks will be sold this year, making up an ever larger part of overall laptop sales and marking one of few tech sectors still experiencing robust revenue growth.
"It's definitely going to be a different sort of device than today's netbooks," said Phil Solis of ABI Research, who expects ARM netbooks to make up 15 percent of the overall netbook market in 2010.
IDC analyst Richard Shim said the first wave of netbooks brought a PC feel to bridge the gap between laptops and smartphones. ARM netbooks, he said, represent a push from the opposite direction.
"The smartphones are now moving up," he added.
It is widely expected that the Computex trade fair in Taiwan in June will see a number of announcements about ARM-based netbooks. With less expensive ARM chips and free or very cheap operating systems, the netbooks could sell for even less than $200 if, as expected, wireless carriers subsidize purchases bundled with a data plan.
Tech blogs were recently buzzing about a prototype netbook built by Taiwan contract laptop maker Wistron shown at the recent CTIA show in Las Vegas. The device was based on Qualcomm's ARM-based Snapdragon platform.