dcsimg
RealTime IT News

Winners/Losers In ISDEX

AOL, eBay, Mindspring all beat the Street's expectations with a few of the toppers finding their way to the pole position of ISDEX performers. As a group the 50-stock bellwether ends up 9% since April 21.

However, under the surface the number of new issues clamoring to get out the IPO gate may dilute the market soon if the unchecked ".com" IPO-spamming continues. Apparently the correction just over a week ago wasn't enough reality check for spec hunters.

That means I can see a possible 10% to 15% correction looming if the less than quality deals go public.

What the no-branders, no marketshare stocks going public do is water down the existing market at first and then could cause a flight to quality, sending the better established stocks up again.

That mini-pattern played out the past two weeks. I suspect we may see it again soon.

Of the leaders here note the ascendency of the security software sector, Security Dynamics (NASDAQ:SDTI), Network Associates (NASDAQ:NETA), CheckPoint Software (NASDAQ:CHKP) and Axent (NASDAQ:AXNT).

But the group still traded down from where they began the year, one of the few Internet sectors that hasn't had the runs seen in most other areas. Tally ho:

ISDEX ®   27-Apr-99 % change Point change
The Internet Stock Index   close from from
www.isdex.com     21-Apr-99 21-Apr-99
         
ISDEX   636.99 9.1% 53.21
NASDAQ   2,602.41 4.6% 113.33
DJIA   10,831.71 2.4% 250.29
         
Mindspring MSPG $ 116.31 26% $23.81
eBay EBAY $ 209.25 25% $42.50
Security Dynamics SDTI $ 22.00 25% $4.38
Network Associates NETA $ 13.75 24% $2.69
Broadvision BVSN $ 63.50 22% $11.50
E*TRADE EGRP $ 119.44 21% $20.94
VocalTec VOCLF $ 12.06 21% $2.06
Axent AXNT $ 10.13 16% $1.38
Onsale ONSL $ 27.69 15% $3.69
Amazon.Com AMZN $ 205.88 15% $26.63
Excite XCIT $ 156.63 14% $19.63
Security First Technologies SONE $ 120.38 14% $14.63
CheckPoint Software CHKPF $ 37.75 12% $4.00
Beyond.com BYND $ 30.19 11% $3.06
Open Market OMKT $ 14.06 9% $1.19
CDnow CDNW $ 15.19 9% $1.25
@Home Network ATHM $ 154.25 9% $12.31
CMG Info CMGI $ 268.13 9% $21.38
Exodus EXDS $ 91.06 8% $7.06
Preview Travel PTVL $ 25.13 8% $1.94
America Online AOL $ 153.00 7% $10.25
Broadcom BRCM $ 78.38 7% $5.25
CNET CNET $ 128.13 7% $8.38
Broadcast.com BCST $ 134.13 7% $8.63
Inktomi INKT $ 126.50 7% $7.88
Cisco CSCO $ 115.06 7% $7.13
Infospace.com INSP $ 133.19 6% $7.69
Yahoo! YHOO $ 184.50 6% $9.63
GeoCities GCTY $ 122.13 5% $6.13
Doubleclick DCLK $ 148.50 5% $6.81
iVillage IVIL $ 95.13 5% $4.13
Egghead.com EGGS $ 14.75 4% $0.56
PSINet PSIX $ 58.44 4% $2.06
Sportsline USA SPLN $ 44.00 2% $1.00
Earthlink Network ELNK $ 70.63 2% $1.25
Cyberian Outpost COOL $ 15.63 2% $0.25
Prodigy PRGY $ 30.31 1% $0.31
ISS Group ISSX $ 54.63 1% $0.38
24/7 Media TFSM $ 47.75 -1% -$0.25
Lycos LCOS $ 100.94 -1% -$0.56
Verio VRIO $ 68.50 -4% -$2.50
Xoom.com XMCM $ 73.13 -5% -$3.63
RealNetworks RNWK $ 181.13 -5% -$9.19
Concentric CNCX $ 79.94 -5% -$4.31
Infoseek SEEK $ 55.00 -7% -$3.88
USWeb USWB $ 26.81 -7% -$1.94
CyberCash CYCH $ 16.56 -7% -$1.25
Go2Net GNET $ 162.88 -8% -$14.63
Network Solutions NSOL $ 83.31 -9% -$8.69
Verisign VRSN $ 124.06 -15% -$21.56

News behind some moves:

  • 99.04.27 - StarMedia sets its IPO at 7 million shares with an $11 target. With 49.4 million shares outstanding that suggests an IPO market debut of $544 million. But I think if the market stays strong StarMedia, which serves Latin America with portal services, could boost share price to perhaps as high as $16 or perhaps $20.

    My suggestion to StarMedia: go for $20. Prodigy raised $120 million. At $20, StarMedia would raise $140 million, about what it'll need to play across the wide expanse of Latin America.

  • 99.04.27 - eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) revenue jumps 469% to $34 million while its net income is $9.5 million or $0.05 EPS. Analyst consensus was $0.02. The personal trading community auction traffic grew 69% to 22.9 million auctions while registered users more than doubled to 3.8 million.

  • 99.04.26 - Network Associates (NASDAQ:NETA) climbs 14% to $12.625 per share on no news. NETA trades at just off its 52-week low following the recent announcement of a possible sales slowdown in second quarter. First quarter was in line with analyst estimates. Perhaps the biggest concern now to me is the slew of lawsuits Network Associates has over its accounting habits.

  • 99.04.23 - ONSALE (NASDAQ:ONSL) rises 14% to $27.375 per share as enthusiasm from the etail and auction space boils over to stocks overlooked. The irony is ONSALE was one of the first public Internet auction companies but uBID (NASDAQ:UBID) seems to be getting more attention from Wall Street. My analysis shows ONSL had 331% more revenue than UBID in 1998 but ONSL trades at 84% that of UBID on a market cap basis.

  • 99.04.22 - Beyond.com (NASDAQ:BYND) finally shows some of the promise I've been waiting for all year (and why it was on my hot list in January). BYND posts $18.8 million loss with sales of $19.1 million vs. $2.2 million loss on $6.2 million sales 1Q98. First Call shows target loss expected to be $0.74 per share.


    Introducing Internet StockTracker, the new weekly e-mail newsletter from internet.com LLC. Every Friday internet.com will deliver to your e-mail in-box the latest performance data on individual Internet companies and their competitors. Internet StockTracker will deliver to you all the statistics you need to assess the week's activity. Subscribe today and receive the Charter Rate of $127 -- a savings of $100 off the regular subscription price! e-newsletters

    Accolades:

    "Fresh and provocative" -CBS Marketwatch, who named Steve Harmon one of the top Internet stock analysts and only independent one honored

    "I am a huge fan of Steve Harmon's analysis" -Kleiner Perkins' John Doerr