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As it is, Microsoft already had to deal with a Windows 7 leak getting out. Milestone 1, a build of the OS, leaked onto BitTorrent sites earlier this year. The first thing some sites did was evaluate it and compare it to Vista when the code was in a very early state.

Kay defends Vista as well, saying it has improved quite a bit since its launch, but after 18 months of FUD and John "I'm a PC" Hodgeman being humiliated in those Apple commercials, it's a lost cause. "I think the perception is still worse than the reality," he said. Still, it might be easier to sell a new product than repair the rep of the old one. "You can make a case that the brand has an image that is impossible to remake."

What's in Windows 7?

Windows Vista had more than its share of problems, most notably the device driver boondoggle. Device drivers either were not ready or were in a pitiful state at launch, causing all manner of problems with customers attempting to upgrade their PC from Windows XP. Microsoft and third-party hardware companies extended fingers of accusation all around while consumers extended a finger of something else at all parties.

Then there were other problems. The User Access Control (UAC), which was supposed to protect against malware, became such a pain in the backside most people disabled it. Application performance was often slower on Vista than it was on XP.

All of these problems were a gold mine for Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL), which has launched a lengthy and extremely successful advertising campaign of ridicule against Microsoft. Microsoft has attempted to reverse this with Project Mojave, where they have consumers play with Vista and not tell them it's Vista until after they've enjoyed using it.

Almost two years after the launch of Vista, it's viewed as too little, too late, and Microsoft seems anxious to put Vista as far behind it as possible while hurrying toward Windows 7, the codename for the future product.

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This much is known about Windows 7: development is being led by Steve Sinofsky, who led development of the very successful Office 2007. Windows 7 is not a whole new OS but an evolution of Vista, and will reuse the old kernel and device driver model. That means it would use the kernel in its newer state, when Microsoft updated it with Vista's first service pack. It also means existing device drivers for Vista will work on Windows 7.

Service Pack 1 did a lot to improve the stability and reliability of Vista, Cherry said, and he thinks Microsoft wants to stay on that track with Windows 7. "I don't expect them to mess with any elements of the OS that would put any of that at risk," he said.

"There's a variety of places where they may attempt to tune performance, like make changes to the UAC. I think you should think about this as being an interim release that's going to address some of the outstanding issues that are going to be blockers on this product and make it a good release," he said.

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