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Israel's GartnerGroup Announces Its Internet Forecast

Israel's GartnerGroup delivered its forecasts on the future of the Internet at the GartnerGroup Eastern Mediterranean Conference in Tel Aviv last week.

"By the year 2002 organizations will invest 3 trillion dollars in business, trade and work over the Internet," said John Lee, GartnerGroup vice president for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, at the annual conference which took place in Tel Aviv last week.

Lee added that all principles of trading have altered because of the Internet. The combination of new business incentives, new customer demands, and technological developments have created a business revolution.

Electronic communications have changed the way in which companies communicate with their partners and how they access information and services. An organization which is not yet part of the e-business era may well disappear.

GartnerGroup estimates that by the year 2001 the number of Internet surfers will exceed 140 million, and e-commerce between businesses and homes will reach an annual turnover of $20 billion.

However in the year 2002, fewer than 15% of the e-commerce companies using the Internet as a marketing channel will be profitable, according to GartnerGroup. In the year 2006, 25% of consumer expenses will be spent and 70% of inter-business trade will be performed on the Net. The narrow bandwidth to homes will continue to limit connections to the Internet in the year 2003, although solutions will be imminent.

In the year 2001, organizations will decrease their investments in Internet technologies, as a result of lack of knowledge among IT personnel who spent the previous year focused on Y2K updates and had no time to specialize in Internet technologies.

GartnerGroup estimates 80% of organizations will use the Internet for communications purposes, access to remote devices and work with trade partners in the year 2003. Organizational standards in excess of 80% will be motivated by Internet technologies in the year 2004. More than half the companies will use the Internet for 80% of their purchasing activities.