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RealTime IT News

Value Per Top Web Site User Up 13 Percent

What a difference a month makes. In the throes of June the average value per unique user to one of the top 10 Web sites was held at my estimated $430 each. As of July 12 that figure popped to $487. The median value jumped even further, from $213 to $250.

June 10's numbers reflect an overall weakness that limped through the Internet stock sector on interest rate fears and investor jitters like a group of guests in the green room on Jerry Springer.

WEBDEX Unique 6-10-99 7-12-99 6-10-99 7-12-99 Percent
website user valuation Users Market cap or PMV* Market cap or PMV* User User change
  (millions) (millions) (millions) Value Value  
AOL.com* 46.2 $15,000 $17,500 $324 $378 16.7%
Microsoft.com* 32.4 $8,500 $10,000 $262 $309 17.6%
Lycos 30.0 $3,890 $4,494 $130 $150 15.5%
Yahoo 31.3 $29,583 $30,707 $945 $981 3.8%
GO Network (SEEK) 20.9 $2,904 $2,838 $139 $136 -2.3%
GeoCities * 20.0 $3,250 $3,000 $163 $150 -7.7%
Excite@Home 17.2 $7,000 $12,944 $407 $753 84.9%
Time Warner web sites 13.1 $1,825 $2,500 $139 $191 37.0%
Blue Mtn Arts 10.1 $650 $700 $64 $69 7.7%
Amazon.com 10.8 $18,731 $18,963 $1,729 $1,751 1.2%
TOTAL 231.9 91,333 103,646 4,304 4,868 13.1%
AVERAGE 23.2 9,133 10,365 430 487 13.1%
MEDIAN 20.4 5,445 7,247 213 250 17.5%
AOL.com and Microsoft.com as well as private companies are valued based on comparables, estimates, growth, peer group. Valuation by Steve Harmon

In the interim a few successful IPOs and better-than-expected earnings propped the group up. Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO), in particular, beat expectations and found renewed legs on it nascent. At 3.8% the tally is'nt significant as much as I think the trend and what GeoCities and Broadcast.com mean to Yahoo going forward.

Go.com (NASDAQ:SEEK), with Disney finally taking control of majority, looks to me like a long-term value play. Disney has ABC TV, shows, TV, films, stores, plays, several characters and more--all leveragable in my view into Web assets.

I think there's still some work to be done at Go.com, mainly which I see its reach on the Web is not on par with the top 4. A large gap exists between Lycos (NASDAQ:LCOS) at 30 million unique users vs. Go.com with 21 million.

On a larger trend that I think may be developing consider that Yahoo, Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) may find it more difficult to grow market value from their already-large base.

In that arena I see AOL.com and Microsoft.com getting more valuable. Certainly AOL (NYSE:AOL) with 46 million monthly users dwarfs the #2 and so on.


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