Schooled in the Internet-time-honored tradition of certitude among technology analysts, panelist Jim Rawitsch, who follows the industry for Boston's Aberdeen Group, had an answer: 2003.

Rawitsch noted that conglomerates like Disney and Bertelsmann have cited a statstical spur that will start them investing heavily in broadband content: when 25 million U.S. households have high-speed connections. The analyst said about 6 million homes are connected today.

"That sounds like a long way off, but those numbers have more than doubled each of the past few years," Rawitsch told a crowd gathered at The Cambridge Marriott. If that trend holds, "you'll get to 24 million by 2003. Despite the glitch in the economy, we're not more than two years away from content revenues generating the next big spike in the broadband industry."

To companies like XO Communications, that day can't come soon enough. XO has spent billions installing its own networks, using both fiber-optic and fixed wireless technology, to deliver broadband service to 81 North American and European cities.

But the company's stock has plummeted as it encounters difficulty installing its lines and signing up customers. Panelist Paul Keefe, who manages XO's Massachusetts operations, said companies developing networks to compete with cable companies and incumbent carriers like Verizon face serious obstacles.

"The largest bottleneck is obviously cost," Keefe said, noting that digging fiber in cities costs $50,000 per mile. "You can share expenses with competitors, but then you're giving up a competitive advantage. Fixed wireless has a geographical range limited to a mile-and-a-half. And it's very difficult to work with cities, towns and business owners, who want new sidewalks or a new ballfield" in exchange for the right to dig and install fiber.

Keefe agreed with other panelists that the old Baby Bells got massive advantages in Congress' 1996 Telecommunications Act that have been hard to overcome. Competing local carriers and DSL companies, for example, have recently been devastated, in part because of incumbents' ownership of and ability to build on existing networks.

Rawitsch said that "incumbents' core competency for 50 years has been their ability to influence the political process that defines the telecom marketplace. These pieces of legislation are not flawed so much as designed to have flaws so the companies with an ax to grind can maintain their advantage...Our best hope is that the marketplace will cause things to change."

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"In my experience, legislators don't understand the telecom industry," Keefe said. "And agencies (like the Department of Public Utilities) seem to have a real slant toward the incumbents."

"Paul's being incredibly tactful," chimed in Bruce Reading, marketing v.p. for Cayman Systems, which designs and makes equipment used by carriers to provide "last mile" broadband links to homes and businesses. The ex-Baby Bells "keep our company in business, but they also spend millions to promote their interests. They're a political way of life in the U.S., and they won't go away."

All panelists commiserated with an audience member who said her small business had been "brought to its knees" by a four-month wait for Verizon to provide broadband service.

Rawitsch suggested she complain to the Public Utilities Commission: "The frequency with which I hear complaints about their lack of service makes me question whether their monopoly rights should be preserved. Maybe threats to go the PUC might motivate them."

Alex Kim, chief operating officer for InvisibleHand Networks, suggested that startups like Yipes, Telespace and Cogent that are trying to bypass incumbent carriers with fiber technology could provide a market-driven answer.

Kim, whose company has a Web platform allowing firms to buy and sell broadband capacity, said the downturn in the telecom industry could prove of benefit to InvisibleHand.

"The industry has been so beaten up by the banks that carriers are looking at selling their bandwidth -- not just the circuits themselves, but services," Kim said. "Ultimately, it's content that has to be delivered. Just having the fiber doesn't mean much unless you have packets to deliver that people are willing to pay for."

Kim acknowledged that the major questions remain -- for what and how much will customers ultimately pay?

Streaming media (including pornography), games and, for businesses, teleconferences all were suggested as applications consumers will buy.

But, panelists agreed, it will take years -- at least two -- for the marketplace to shake out.