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Technical Analysis: Dow Breaks Out

The Dow (first chart below) took out the critical 8522-8530 resistance level today; it now has to hold as support. Upside is now possible to 8750-8870 resistance. The Transports (second chart) are just under major resistance at 2470. The Dow has lagged the Transports badly, which is a negative, but if it can take out 9077 resistance and the Transports can take out 2470, that would be a Dow Theory bull market signal, something we'd be hard-pressed to take lightly. Sentiment sure isn't what we'd like to see, but price is the ultimate arbiter, and it continues to head up. There is a strong belief that the end of the war means the economy will improve; now the economic reports have to begin to deliver. The Nasdaq (third chart) faces major resistance at 1521. Above that, the index has room to run. Support is 1485, 1467, 1450, and 1425-1435. The S&P (fourth and fifth charts) is hitting major resistance in the 930-940 zone. Support is 909 and 902. The S&P and Nasdaq are close to major resistance, so some sort of pullback appears likely to begin soon, but the Dow has room to run, provided it holds 8522 support. One potential negative is the extremely low number of new lows today (four) on the NYSE; in the past, that has tended to occur near tops.

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