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HP/Compaq Merger Now A 50-50 Chance

UPDATE: Analysts say the deal is anybody's guess now that David Packard is supporting the Hewlett's vote of no confidence. HP and Compaq boards stand firm.

November 7, 2001
By Michael Singer: More stories by this author:

Eight out of nine Hewlett-Packard board members Wednesday say they approve the planned merger between the Palo Alto, Calif.-based computer and printer maker and Compaq Computer.

Unfortunately, that one lone hold out's last name is Hewlett, as in Walter B. Hewlett - the son of the co-founder and chairman of related company Trusts and Foundations - who said Tuesday that he and other family members opposes the merger.

Now, comes word that a member of the Packard family, David Packard, is siding with the Hewlett's decision to vote against the deal if it were to come up before shareholders.

Packard told reporters that he is speaking on his own behalf and not as a representative for his sister or the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, which controls about 10 percent of HP's 1.94 billion outstanding shares. The Hewlett Trust, the Hewlett Foundation and the family members together own more than 100 million shares of HP stock or 5 percent of the company.

Even though the combined share power of the Hewletts and Packard are not enough to prevent the merger from happening, investors and analysts are a bit skittish about the likelihood of the merger happening if the company's namesakes are not 100 percent behind it. Some give it a 50-50 chance of failing.

"That would all but kill the deal," analyst Toni Sacconaghi of Sanford Bernstein & Co. told the Wall Street Journal.

"We still believe that the combination makes sense from a synergistic standpoint and believe the combined entities could deliver earnings in the $1.50-$2.00 per share range within two years," says analysts at Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown.

If the merger does not go through, HP would have to pay a breakup penalty of $675 million.

Compaq's entire eight-member board, meantime, threw its support behind the merger saying that "the combination of these two great companies will create an even stronger market and technology leader," and "the board is more convinced than ever that the merger serves the best interests of shareholders, customers, partners and employees."

From here, the question would appear to be whether more stockholders oppose the deal, or whether HP's management can convince them on the merits of the merger.

HP's Board of Directors says shareholders should wait until they've had an opportunity to review the proxy statement, which the company will be filing in a few days.

"The statement will provide a complete view of this transaction, which is necessary for a thoughtful decision by shareowners," says Patricia C. Dunn, HP co-chairman and global chief executive of Barclay's Global Investors

HP also re-committed themselves to CEO Carly Fiorina despite speculation that a failed HP/Compaq deal would result in her firing.

"Today, I'm even more convinced of the power of this combination, particularly given the progress of our integration plans," says former HP chairman and executive vice president Dick Hackborn. "Under Carly's leadership, the new HP will continue to be an innovation leader with a culture focused on trust, teamwork, accountability and contribution."

The all-stock transaction between HP and Houston, Texas-based Compaq, originally worth $25 billion, has dropped in value as much as 38 percent.






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