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Technical Analysis: S&P Hits Headwinds

The biggest surprise this week was not in the charts but in the CFTC's weekly Commitments of Traders report. The big commercial traders got net long the big S&P contract this week, an impressive development considering how much stocks have already climbed. The COT report suggests they may go higher still. The S&P (first chart below) hit resistance right where we thought it would today. If the index can take out 1511 on Monday, it could be headed for its all-time closing and intraday highs of 1527.46 and 1552.87. Support is 1498 and 1493. The Dow (second chart) is also hitting resistance here, and the index is looking pretty overbought. The index will open right on support Monday, and 13,170 is the next level down. The Nasdaq (third and fourth charts) barely hung onto its buy signal this week. Cisco's earnings next week will be key. Resistance is 2587, and support is 2557 and 2537. Bond yields (fifth chart) remain stuck between their 50-day and 200-day averages.