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Sideways After Seven Days: ISDEX Paces the Broader Market

With most of the first quarter revenue and earnings (or losses) posted, investors haven't been disappointed with actual results vs. expectations. Most of the 60%-plus run in ISDEX year to date was on the "real business" and bottom-line nature of the firms starting to emerge. So far.

>From Yahoo!'s (NASDAQ:YHOO) better-than-expected earnings per share to Amazon's (NASDAQ:AMZN) narrower-than-expected losses, most of the discounted hoo haa in the group as a whole has been met. Netscape's (NASDAQNSCP) 20% run since April 28 came on its $70 million deal with Excite (NASDAQ:XCIT) where the latter will pay to provide it search services on NetCenter over the next two years in return for ad revenue splits.

But today's spotlight will definitely be on AOL (NYSE:AOL) as the bellwether (in our opinion) releases its quarterly revenue and earnings data today.

Street estimates call for AOL to report $0.12 earnings per share but we think it may do a little better based on the growing marketing, advertising and long-distance phone service sellthrough of and to its members.

Despite being lambasted for its proprietary service, we think AOL represents the only end-to-end Internet stock with its brand, membership, access revenue, global clout, content, and pioneering features that tend to define the Webscape for others.

AOL's earnings will likely be rocket fuel for its stock, or if worse than expected, a huge sucking sound may be heard coming from headquarters in Vienna, VA as investors look elsewhere for growth in this space.

In short, if AOL posts strong EPS then it could further establish it as the flagship Internet stock. If not then a handful of upstarts could fill the slot. Which ones? The search and navigation stocks or consumer ISPs in the table below:

ISDEX April 28 -May 5

    05-May-98 % change Point change % change
    close from from from
      28-Apr-98 28-Apr-98 31-Dec-97
           
ISDEX Avg.   163.89 1.1% 1.76 64.1%
ISDEX Price Wtd.   1,700.25 2.7% 44.03 63.2%
NASDAQ   1,864.91 1.8% 33.15 18.8%
DJIA   9,147.57 2.8% 248.61 15.7%
           
Netscape NSCP $30.13 20% $5.06 24%
America Online AOL $89.50 19% $14.38 98%
IDT Corp IDTC $32.56 15% $4.19 61%
CNET CNWK $37.56 15% $4.78 27%
Doubleclick DCLK $41.63 12% $4.38 145%
Concentric CNCX $25.13 11% $2.50 183%
Lycos LCOS $64.59 11% $6.22 56%
@Home Network ATHM $36.63 11% $3.50 46%
CMG Info CMGI $98.44 10% $9.06 225%
Sportsline USA SPLN $36.75 10% $3.38 242%
Spyglass SPYG $11.75 10% $1.06 138%
CKS Group CKSG $22.88 9% $1.88 62%
E*TRADE EGRP $25.00 8% $1.81 9%
Network Associates NETA $70.84 6% $3.97 34%
Network Solutions NSOL $48.75 5% $2.44 271%
NewsEdge NEWZ $14.06 5% $0.69 5%
Onsale ONSL $26.56 4% $1.06 48%
Earthlink Network ELNK $68.00 4% $2.50 164%
Broadvision BVSN $18.63 4% $0.66 187%
Security First Net Bank SFNB $11.00 3% $0.31 52%
Intuit INTU $52.88 3% $1.50 28%
Open Text OTEXF $19.75 2% $0.38 48%
Secure Computing SCUR $11.69 2% $0.19 -1%
PairGain PAIR $18.50 1% $0.13 -5%
Axent AXNT $26.56 1% $0.16 54%
Cylink CYLK $13.25 0% $0.06 36%
Excite XCIT $66.75 0% $0.28 123%
Egghead.com EGGS $9.81 0% $0.00 51%
CDnow CDNW $28.69 -1% -$0.31 79%
Yahoo! YHOO $116.75 -1% -$1.75 69%
Verisign VRSN $36.06 -2% -$0.56 158%
Security Dynamics SDTI $23.44 -2% -$0.38 -34%
CheckPoint Software CHKPF $30.75 -2% -$0.63 -25%
Amazon.Com AMZN $93.72 -2% -$1.91 56%
CyberCash CYCH $20.78 -3% -$0.56 64%
Open Market OMKT $18.22 -3% -$0.53 89%
Infoseek SEEK $32.03 -3% -$0.97 198%
Broadband Technologies BBTK $7.75 -3% -$0.25 88%
Metricom MCOM $10.13 -4% -$0.38 5%
CheckFree CKFR $24.72 -4% -$0.97 -8%
Versant Object Technologies VSNT $5.94 -4% -$0.25 -57%
Mecklermedia MECK $23.63 -5% -$1.13 -5%
RealNetworks RNWK $30.38 -7% -$2.13 119%
Mindspring MSPG $63.25 -8% -$5.50 88%
PSINet PSIX $12.84 -8% -$1.16 151%
USWeb USWB $24.69 -9% -$2.44 163%
N2K NTKI $22.50 -10% -$2.44 54%
Cyberguard CYBG $14.31 -10% -$1.63 154%
VocalTec VOCLF $16.81 -10% -$1.94 -18%
WavePhore WAVO $13.31 -11% -$1.69 42%
SIMPLE AVERAGE   34.01 3% 0.94 63%
TOTAL   1,700.25 3% 47.03 63%



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