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WEBDEX: GeoCities Value Per User @ IPO

For the past six months we've been estimating GeoCities valuation and are happy to report that our estimates were right on target. The websteader announced its initial public offering at $557 million or $13 per share (fully diluted). That's right in the $500 million to $550 million range GeoCities has held in WEBDEX.

Mecklermedia's June July 15 July 22 July 15 July 22 Percent
WEBDEX Users Market cap or PMV* Market cap or PMV* User User change
website value index (millions) (millions) (millions) Value Value  
Yahoo 30.4 $8,413 $8,968 $276 $295 6.6%
AOL.com* 23.2 $3,000 $3,100 $129 $134 3.3%
Excite 18.9 $2,182 $2,416 $115 $128 10.7%
Netscape.com* 18.5 $1,800 $1,800 $97 $97 0.0%
Microsoft.com* 18.0 $2,300 $2,400 $128 $133 4.3%
MSN.com/Hotmail 15.2 $1,350 $1,400 $89 $92 3.7%
GeoCities (IPO cap) 14.8 $500 $557 $34 $38 11.4%
Lycos 15.0 $1,282 $1,404 $85 $93 9.5%
Infoseek 12.0 $985 $992 $82 $82 0.8%
Disney.com* 10.0 $1,150 $1,200 $115 $120 4.3%
TOTAL 176.1 $22,962 $24,237 $1,151 $1,212 5.3%
AVERAGE 17.6 $2,296 $2,424 $115 $121 5.3%

Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) user value is now close to $300 each or double what it was a few months ago. The biggest gainer of the group in percentage terms was Excite (NASDAQ:XCIT), which successfully fended off a fax-in offer from Zapata, built out part of its deal with Netscape for guides, and inked marketing deals with Auto-By-Tel on July 22.

On July 21 Lycos (NASDAQ:LCOS) offered a $12.95 per month online access deal for users of the service it markets with AT&T WorldNet, prompting us to believe that an access price war may erupt soon. Now that Disney's deal with Infoseek (NASDAQ:SEEK) has settled in the media, it's notable that Infoseek is back to plain vanilla news announcements. On July 22 the search engine and HomeShark got together for a "strategic alliance." No mention of cash for reach, which has become the chief revenue driver for top guide sites.

Speaking of Mickey Mouse, on July 22 Disney (NYSE:DIS) reported weaker than expected June quarter net income of $0.20 per share vs. $0.23 for the same quarter last year. Its movie and video businesses were to blame. The company probably needs the Web more than ever now--a global and cost effective way to sell its videos direct.


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