RealTime IT News

Top 10 Sites Lose 10%: WEBDEX Shows Value Per User Off

Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) reported better than expected earnings yesterday, $0.15 EPS vs. the Street's guesstimate of $0.10 EPS. That news may bolster YHOO shares today since the results came after the market closed. Revenue jumps 196% to $53.6 million vs. 3Q97. Average daily page views reach 144 million vs. 115 million in June.

It didn't come in time to stop a 17-million share sell-off in the Web media firm October 7, as Mecklermedia's WEBDEX (Website User Value Index) tallied the top 10 Website valuations for the week since October 1.

Mecklermedia's August Oct 1 Oct 7 Oct 1 Oct 7 Percent
WEBDEX Users Market cap or PMV* Market cap or PMV* User User change
  (millions) (millions) (millions) Value Value  
Yahoo 26.1 $11,336 $10,715 $434 $410 -5.5%
AOL.com* 21.8 $3,100 $3,000 $142 $138 -3.2%
Microsoft.com* 19.6 $2,650 $2,500 $135 $127 -5.7%
Lycos 17.6 $1,140 $1,005 $65 $57 -11.8%
Excite 16.6 $1,911 $1,727 $115 $104 -9.6%
Netscape.com* 16.3 $1,800 $1,400 $110 $86 -22.2%
MSN.com/Hotmail* 15.6 $1,000 $875 $64 $56 -12.5%
GeoCities 15.5 $686 $506 $44 $33 -26.3%
Infoseek 11.0 $720 $645 $65 $59 -10.4%
Disney.com* 10.4 $1,100 $900 $105 $86 -18.2%
TOTAL 170.5 $25,443 $23,273 $1,281 $1,156 -9.8%
AVERAGE 17.1 $2,544 $2,327 $128 $116 -9.8%

WEBDEX is down 10% as a group, led by GeoCities (NASDAQ:GCTY), which lost 26% of its market cap in the period.

We estimate Netscape.com Netcenter (valued on its own) also dropped in valuation on the general market malaise. You could pick up the entire company--software and Website--for $1.7 billion.

In a bidding situation, if Netcenter were lucky enough to have multiple bidders emerge, we think Netcenter could fetch $1.4 billion from the right buyer. Of all the Internet players, we think Hewlett Packard would be a good fit due to its corporate focus, global reach, and commitment to the Web.

We keep waiting to see some Disney magic in Disney.com or Go.com, anything will do .com. Now that it's tied to Infoseek to the tune of $430 million for 43%, one side or another needs to flip the switch on that agreement, and soon. Mouse speed. When you look at the potential you wonder whose Fantasia is it anyway?

Lycos (NASDAQ:LCOS) agreed to acquire Wired Digital for $83 million stock. The interesting part is to see Lycos' accounting-like approach to the Internet clash with Wired Digital's "10 Web designers to one Web page approach" in content creation. WhoWhere and how.

In the never-give-up-'til-you-get-it-right-space, Microsoft announced it's launching 24 portals globally. This shotgun approach may work if Microsoft can tie it into Windows2000 so that your OS and postal code create a custom portal just for you every time you fire up Windows. Inevitable.

The PC boxmakers have some leverage here to tweak the initial screen. That window is closing unless they create their own user-centric Web sites/ISP access/one click always on Internet. The Internet is your hard drive. The boot up has been replaced with dial up.