Since Novell acquired Germany's SuSe Linux for $210 million, Red Hat now has a major competitor looking for more growth in the U.S. marketplace, helped in part by IBM's $50 million investment in Novell as part of the SuSe deal.

"We see more and more enterprises interested in SuSe Linux as we have now together with Novell a better global coverage and better support offering," said SuSe spokesman Holger Dyroff. "We are a much more stable company and that's what enterprises are looking for in Linux."

He also said he expects the next version of SuSe Linux Enterprise server, based on the 2.6.x kernel, will accelerate growth in the second half of the year. That release is currently scheduled for July 2004.

Regarding SuSe's principal competitors, Red Hat leads the pack, followed by Microsoft's Windows and Sun Microsystem's Solaris operating systems, Dryoff said.

"Of course we would like to be the most popular distribution," Dyroff told internetnews.com.

"We want to grow faster than the competition. In general when you see SuSe in 2004, you'll see cutting edge technology with the first commercial enterprise Linux distribution that can deliver the 2.6 kernel-based solution."

SuSe's Linux Professional distribution came out in October; a new version is scheduled for release in April.

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The Debian Surge

While Red Hat and SuSe Linux are eyeing each other, Debian (which is also the base for a number of other distributions including Xandros and desktop Linux via Lindows), is plotting new growth for 2004 based on its darling status among Linux enthusiasts.

"The Netcraft survey clearly showed that Debian is a major player and that demand in Debian is increasing," current Debian Project Leader Martin Michlmayr told internetnews.com.

But Debian's Michlmayr also noted that governments and schools are sweet spots for the project's momentum in 2004. Its next release, code named Sarge, is expected by summer and will include the 2.6 kernel, an improved installer, Security Enhanced Linux (SELinux) enhancements and numerous other improvements, according to administrators working on the project.

Michlmayr said he would like Debian to be the most popular distribution, but admits that's a tall order. "Debian has traditionally been a system for people with high technical expertise," he told internetnews.com. "However we are working on making Debian more usable and easier to use."

The same could be said for the next release from MandrakeLinux. The company, which is working to emerge from bankruptcy reorganization, expects its Version 10 Community to be available early March with the official release several months later in May. Mandrake last month rolled out the beta version of its 10.0 Linux release, which boasts support for the Linux 2.6.1 kernel.

Mandrake Linux founder Gael Duval told internetnews.com that he believes Mandrake to be one of the most popular if not the most popular distribution in terms of user base and growth. According to the Netcraft survey, Mandrake's 52,543 installations in January represent a 2.4 percent growth rate over the prior six months.

Duval said growth for Mandrake will come from the SMB (small and medium-sized business) and corporate server and desktop markets. "The corporate desktop is currently gaining big momentum," Duval told internetnews.com. "We'll have a dedicated product especially for this market by the end of 2004."

For TurboLinux, the answer to the question of whose Linux distribution is most popular depends on which region of the world is asking.

Michael Jennings, a spokesman for TurboLinux, said TurboLinux is considered a leading Linux distributor in China. "If you're talking about the U.S. it would be Red Hat, and in Europe it would be SuSE," he added.

Jennings cited Red Hat as TurboLinux's biggest competition in Japan. He also said TurboLinux expects its growth this year to come from markets in China, Japan and Korea, followed by India, Egypt and then Taiwan, Malaysia and Singapore.

"Turbolinux is devoted to staying loyal to its roots. We intend to remain the most popular Linux company in Asia and to grow in the region even more. We are not looking to be the worldwide leader," Jennings told internetnews.com.

"Many economic reports show China and India with the largest economic potential and that's where we plan to grow our company."

TurboLinux released its latest desktop release (TurboLinux 10 Desktop), in October. Its next server release is expected in the fall.

In the meantime, the company is working on a new weapon: Turbolinux Appliance Server 1.0, an entirely new product that has yet to be announced publicly. TurboLinux officials said it will be based on Sun's Cobalt cube (which is now open source) and is code named Blue Quartz. It is slated for release by late February or early March.

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