After a Quarter Century of Windows - Page 3

Page 3 of 3

Microsoft is readying Windows 7 for shipment in mid- to late 2009 or early 2010. In many respects, it is a cleaner version of Vista and provides faster response from the user interface, one of users favorite gripes about Vista. Microsoft is hoping that version 7 will break the Windows logjam.

With Windows 7 Microsoft has another dilemma. Most new PCs today are 64-bit systems and, to use more than 4 GB of RAM, require a 64-bit operating system. Microsoft has offered 64-bit editions of Windows since 2005 when it released XP x64, and there is also an x64 edition of Vista.

However, in the past few months, sales of the x64 edition of Vista have begun to outstrip sales of Vista x86. Due to a lack of some 64-bit device drivers, Microsoft officials have been beseeching developers to write 64-bit applications and device drivers for the upcoming Windows 7.

Windows' last hurrah?

Besides Windows 7, however, Microsoft is also readying its so-called cloud computing initiative, which aims to provide many applications functions as services remotely via giant data centers the company is building around the world.

It remains unclear whether cloud computing will eventually kill off Windows, and long-time observers disagree with each other.

"There are threats on the horizon and that includes how much OS people need as they move to network-hosted applications," Cherry said. Among those threats is more use of applications on mobile devices such as Apple's iPhone, as well as network hosting technologies like Azure.

Another threat is time itself. Users waited five years for Vista and will wait another two years from Vista's launch for Windows 7. It may be that, along with the growth of cloud computing, the next release of Windows after that may be a long wait.

"The release of Windows 7 very well could be the last release in the next ten years," said Enderle. "And Azure may be dooming Windows as we know it," he added.

That's far from a universal viewpoint, however.

"PCs [and thus Windows] are not going away any time soon," Bajarin said. He agrees that doesn't necessarily guarantee a place at the table for Windows long-term though. "While I do think that Azure will be a part of it [future computing], at best that's five years out and I wouldn't be surprised if it's a full seven to ten years out," he added.

In the meantime, keep an eye on Ozzie, Gillmor says. Gates hired him to keep the ship on an even keel before he retired, even as Ozzie steers the company through uncertain waters. And with a technology leader like Ozzie, whatever happens will be not come about by accident.

As evidence, Gillmor cites Ozzie's 'Internet Services Disruption' memo where he first spelled out his software-plus-services strategy in 2005. Since he was appointed chief software architect, in fact, Ozzie has made a lot of changes that are only now becoming apparent.

"What we're seeing today is the stability that Ozzie has achieved since he turned the ship," Gillmor added.

Microsoft was not available for comment before publication.