Linux vendor revenue $1 billion by 2012? Or is it $49 billion+ ?

From the ‘More Fun With Stats‘ files:

IDC is out with a new report (here’s the abstract link), forecasting Linux revenue from 2009-2013. I don’t have the full report (if you work for IDC can you help me out?) but at least one Linux vendor has already posted on some of the detailed information.

According to a post on the data, from Novell CMO John Dragoon, in 2008,  the Linux vendor community saw a 23.4 percent growth in revenue. 

“While Red Hat continues to have the largest share, Novell had a particularly good 2008 growing total Linux operating system revenue by 50.3% from 2007 to 2008 while growing overall market share over five points to 29.8 percent in 2008.”

That’s good for Novell (and the overall Linux market). The part of the data that I find really surprising, is the fact that Dragoon notes that according to IDC’s forecast, Linux operating systems revenue will exceed
$1 billion in 2012 and continue to grow to $1.2 billion in 2013.

IDC is in the habit of forecasting big numbers for Linux. Let’s take a trip down memory lane shall we?

In 2007, IDC analyst Al Gillen (the same guy that wrote the current report), forecast that the Linux ecosystem would be worth $40 billion by 2010. In 2008, IDC forecast the Linux ecosystem to be worth $49 billion by 2011.

All seems just a bit confusing, doesn’t it?

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