UPDATED: Could Microsoft be doing something right for a change
when it comes to its upcoming Vista operating system?
After repeated delays and setbacks, Vista may ship on time after all, according to a financial analyst.
In a note to investors, Goldman Sachs analyst Rick Sherlund said the last
test version of Vista could be ready as early as the end of the week. The
assessment makes it more possible the operating system could reach PC
vendors in November and consumers by late January 2007.
“We had been skeptical of the launch schedule after Beta shipped with
problems in May, but the team seems to be making great progress in
addressing issues of performance, reliability and compatibility,” Sherlund
wrote.
Additionally, vendors faced with the prospect of a holiday buying season
without Vista to attract consumers could begin offering upgrade coupons
starting later this month, according to the analyst.
“Microsoft is negotiating with PC vendors now on the nature of the coupons,”
according to Sherlund. Details such as the timing and who pays for the
enticements remain.
Microsoft refused to comment on the report. The software maker plans to
unveil RC2, but won’t say when. More details could become known when the
software maker reports first quarter earnings October 26.
The upbeat note seems to run counter to previous analyst opinions suggesting
Vista may not appear before the second quarter of 2007.
In May, Gartner Group released a report titled “Windows Vista Unlikely to Ship Before 2Q07.”
The research firm based the report on the speed of past OS introductions. While Windows XP took just five months to go from second beta to final code, the span stretched 16 months in the case of Windows 2000.
Michael Silver, author of the May report, concedes it looks like Microsoft
will meet its November goal to get Vista to business users, but
says “not like they will do much with the product during Thanksgiving and
New Year’s holidays.”
While Microsoft says Vista should reach consumers by January, the
Gartner analyst said he is waiting to see what happens with the EC.
“Microsoft could decide to hold back broad availability so they can have a
single build for EU and non-EU,” Silver told internetnews.com.
Other analysts agree Vista could be back on schedule.
Although some uncertainty remains, “Microsoft is in pretty good shape,”
JupiterKagan analyst Joe Wilcox told internetnews.com.
Wilcox said the September release of Release Candidate 1 (RC1) was a major milestone.
Testers positively received that first test version of Vista.
However, possible roadblocks remain for Vista.
If European regulators demand Microsoft make changes
in Vista to address concerns by rivals, such as Adobe and
Symantec , the operating system could face more delays.
If beta testers encounter either technical bugs or other problems with the
software requiring changes, the final release date could again slip,
according to the analyst.
In the end, the date Vista is finally released may depend less on the
actions of the software company and more on outside decisions.
“It’s no longer in Microsoft’s hands,” Wilcox said.
