Although Latin America is constrained by its telecommunications infrastructure
and limited Internet access, Forrester
Research predicts that e-commerce in the region will grow to $82 billion
in 2004.
According to Forrester, the Latin American Internet economy will be
principally powered by business-to-business (B2B) trade. B2B online in Latin
America will account for $76 billion in 2004, or 93 percent of the total.
“E-commerce in Latin America today faces significant challenges, but there are
clear signs that the economic climate is dramatically improving,” said Stuart
Woodring, VP of research for emerging Internet economies. “The combination of
aggressive efforts to stabilize currencies with liberalized trade policies
will make Latin America — especially Brazil and Argentina — fertile ground
for rapid adoption of global e-commerce.”
In addition to public policy support, full engagement in e-commerce requires a
critical mass of technology linkages: phone lines, PCs, Internet hosts, and
cell phones. Latin America’s current limited access to hosting and phone lines
will stunt this region’s e-commerce growth. Even though the region lags behind
its northern neighbors, partnerships and newly established corporate bases in
Latin America are the first signs of growth.
“E-commerce in Latin America will thrive in the coming years thanks to a
rollback of protectionist policies, innovative uses of mobile technology, and
pressure from Internet-sophisticated global trading partners,” said Matthew
Sanders, associate analyst. “Brazil will lead this region by trading $64
billion online by 2004. MERCOSUR neighbor and principal trading partner
Argentina will follow with more than $10 billion in online sales.”
| E-Commerce Sales in 2004 by Region | |
|---|---|
| United States | $3.2 trillion |
| Asia-Pacific | $1.6 trillion |
| Western Europe | $1.5 trillion |
| Eastern Europe, Africa, Middle East |
$68.6 trillion |
| Latin America | $82 billion |
| Source: Forrester Research | |
According to research done in 1999 by International Data Corp. (IDC), nearly 85
percent of companies in Latin America are using or are willing to evaluate
e-commerce within the next two years. IDC also found that Latin America
Internet users spend an average of $53 per month on service fees and local
phone charges, twice the amount spent by US users. These charges reduce the
time Latin America users spend online, thus reducing their likelihood to shop
online. The high costs are also the main reason only 20 percent of the
region’s computers are on the Internet. In 1998, IDC reported that 74 percent
of the money spent online by Latin American users went to firms outside of
Latin America, mostly in the US.
Forrester estimates that e-commerce will account for 8.6 percent of worldwide
sales of goods and services in 2004. The expansion of online trade, however,
will be highly concentrated, with 12 countries representing nearly 85 percent
of worldwide Net sales. The US will continue to be the global e-commerce
leader, with online sales reaching $3.2 trillion in 2004. The Asia-Pacific
region will see a total of $1.6 trillion in e-commerce in 2004, closely
followed by Western Europe, which will hit $1.5 trillion. Eastern Europe,
Africa, and the Middle East will contribute a combined $68.6 billion in 2004.
