A report to be issued next week says that online advertising is expected to
reach $33 billion by 2004, one-third of which will be spent outside of the
United States.
Despite cries that online ads don’t work, spending for Internet advertising
will continue to grow at a furious pace, according to Forrester Research, author of the report.
The increase in spending will come from several sources, including the
reallocation of dollars from traditional media.
“Spending for online advertising is being driven by a self-perpetuating
cycle,” said Charlene Li, senior analyst in New Media Research at Forrester.
“As the online audience continues to grow and e-commerce accelerates, more
and more marketing dollars will be drawn to the Web. These trends will be
enhanced by the arrival of new technologies that improve the accountability
of Web advertising.”
Forrester projects that U.S. online ad spending will grow from $2.8 billion
to $22 billion by 2004. This figure represents 8.1 percent of projected expenditures
for traditional advertising — exceeding magazine, yellow pages, and radio
spending.
The compound annual growth rate for Web advertising will be 51 percent over the next
five years, roughly tracking the growth of online retail., the report
predicts.
Meanwhile, higher consumer usage of the Web will create excess ad inventory,
lowering
CPM rates and making Web advertising more cost-effective and accessible to
new marketers.
With new ROI tracking tools and plenty of ad inventory available, marketers
Will increasingly demand performance-based deals. By 2004, Forrester predicts
that 53 percent of US online ad spending will be based on performance.
Outside the US, online ad spending is predicted to increase from $502 million
in 1999 to $10.8 billion in 2004. In Europe, the report says, online ad spending will
total $5.5 billion in 2004, representing 5.1 percent of Europe’s ad spending. The Asia/Pacific
nations will spend an additional $3.3 billion, representing 5.9 percent of
traditional ad
spending in the region. Latin America will grow to $1.6 billion in 2004, or
11 percent.
of regional spending.
For the report, “Internet Advertising Skyrockets,” Forrester drew upon
interviews with 50 online and off-line marketers, publicly reported revenues
of Internet companies, and Forrester Technographics data about consumers’
online usage.
