Reports out today from separate research firms are looking at he issues of
who is making (or will make) money in the world of wireless LANs. The indicators
overall are good for companies going into some form of 802.11-related business.
The gist is, hardware companies should not expect to break the bank, but access
providers might be looking at a lucrative few years.
In-Stat/MDR’s report entitled "Wherever,
Whenever: WLANs Make Business Networking Nomadic" ($3,295
for the full report) has the good news and the bad news for 802.11 equipment
manufacturers.
The good: WLAN product sales for businesses are up, as high as 175%, and will
continue to grow another 60% in 2002. Security specialists, of course, have
done quite well in the last few months, as 802.11x security remains the consistent
bug in most business implementations.
The bad: Revenues will only increase 7% this year as the price on 802.11-based
equipment, even the newer 802.11a products, continues to plummet. That’s a huge
drop from 2001, when end-use revenues were up 92% from the previous year.
Other highlights of In-Stat’s report include the growth of the Asia Pacific
region’s use of WLANs, surpassing that of Europe, the Middle East, and Africa;
Cisco’s domination of the business WLAN hardware market shifting somewhat as
Linksys, Agere, and Buffalo Technology top the total units shipped; and the
projection that 802.11a/b combo NICs will be the driving force for network adapters
going forward.
The real bright side in the WLAN world is probably in the Internet access side
of wireless. According to the Alexander Resources’ report "Broadband
Wireless LAN: Public Space and the Last Mile" ($2,905 for the full
report, $7,285 for multiple users), written by Tony Crabtree of Hampshire, England-based
Juniper Research, the growing
last mile WLANs, whether community freenets or fixed-wireless WISPs, will bring
in worldwide revenue of $5.5 billion by 2007, with total worldwide public hotspot
revenues around $9.5 billion that same year.
"I think that [802.11’s] potential as a last mile solution has generally
being overlooked," says Crabtree. "WLAN technologies will become very
widespread in the distribution of broadband access from DSL/cable nodes to local
communities. It is relatively cheap to purchase/install, has global standards
in place, widely available equipment, no licenses to purchase, and a nice fat
bandwidth to offer."
Last mile or fixed-wireless WISP revenue estimates for just North America go
from $201 million this year to $1.867 billion by 2007.
The announcement says "last mile/fixed WLAN applications are growing at
breakneck speed," especially in the United States. The relative ease of
deployment for wireless "makes it an ideal solution for rural locations
and developing economies, where a digital wired infrastructure is not widely
available."
North America’s public hotspots don’t make much more than the last-mile WISPs
today ($219 million for 2002) but their revenue be almost one-third larger that
of WISPs in 2007 ($2.584 billion).
Europe, China, and the Far East will also have huge potential growth in the
next five years.
Don’t expect the big hotspot money to come from public food venues like coffee
shops and bars, even though there are reportedly as many as 10,000 potential
locations currently under discussion with various wireless providers. Business
travelers will drive this market as the majority of revenue will come from convention
centers, hotels, and airports, according to the report. Those locations will
"become the focus of contention by the major WISPs and mobile operators."
Eric Griffith is the managing editor of 802.11 Planet.
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