Cisco Misses Estimates

In a stunning sign of just how much the economy has slowed, technology and Internet bellwether Cisco Systems missed estimates by almost every measure after the bell on Tuesday.

During the day, the ISDEX http://www.wsrn.com/apps/ISDEX/ finished unchanged at 384, and the Nasdaq climbed 21 to 2664. The S&P 500 slipped 2 to 1352, and the Dow declined 8 to 10,957. Volume rose to 1.05 billion shares on the NYSE, and 1.76 billion on the Nasdaq. Advancers led 16 to 14 on the NYSE, and 20 to 17 on the Nasdaq. For earnings reports, visit our earnings calendar at http://www.wsrn.com/apps/earnings/internet.xpl and reported earnings at http://www.wsrn.com/apps/earnings/ireported.xpl. For after hours quotes and news, visit our after hours trading site at http://www.afterhourstrading.com.

Cisco fell 1 3/8 to 33 3/16 after hours after missing estimates by a penny with 18 cent earnings. Analysts had already reduced estimates to 19 cents a share after two stealth warnings from the company last month. Cisco’s revenues came in $450 million lower than expected at $6.75 billion, and the company’s gross margins also missed estimates. Juniper fell 7 to 97 after hours.

During the day, Applied Micro plunged 9 3/8 to 55 after confirming that some customer orders had been canceled. The company said that Juniper did not cancel any orders. Cisco is another AMCC customer.

Sun Microsystems slipped 1/4 to 27 5/8 after the company told analysts than January was weaker than expected for the company.

JDS Uniphase rose 1 3/4 to 51 3/4 on news that the Justice Department has approved the company’s merger with SDL . Nortel will purchase JDSU’s laser operations.

iVillage rose 21/32 to 2 3/8 after beating estimates and announcing that it will acquire competitor Women.com , unchanged at 23/32.

Amazon.com rose 1 1/2 to 15 15/16 despite more negative comments from Lehman Brothers about the company’s credit.

eToys , down 1/8 to 5/32, said it will layoff the remainder of its employees effective April 6. The company will run out of cash on March 31, and said it expects no additional capital.

CacheFlow , off 4 1/8 to 9 7/8, issued an earnings warning. Onvia , off 1/8 to 1 3/8, missed estimates, as did Sagent , down 1/4 to 3 5/8.

Netegrity rose 1 5/16 to 60 3/4 on a partnership with VeriSign .

MicroStrategy tacked on 5/8 to 16 3/4 on a deal with Compaq .

InfoSpace dropped 9/16 to 3 11/16 after announcing it will cut 250 jobs, or 21% of its workforce.

Some technical comments on the market: Note: We are now including charts in the technical market commentary. If you can’t get the charts via the e-mail newsletter version, try this link: http://www.afterhourstrading.com/column.html

The Nasdaq 100 and the Dow ran into resistance this morning. Given Cisco’s weak numbers tonight, the market could be headed for a pullback here. The Nasdaq 100 (first chart) ran into its September downtrend line today around 2530 and pulled back. So while the Nasdaq (second chart) is holding above its September downtrend line, the large-cap techs are looking a little weak to us here. To the downside, we want to hold yesterday’s lows of 2400 on the Nasdaq 100 and 2600 on the Nasdaq, the indexes’ lower rising channel boundaries. The ISDEX (third chart) continues to hold above

380 support, a plus for Net stocks.

The S&P 500 is well above any critical support. The closest, the lower rising channel boundary, is around 1330.

The Dow continues to struggle at 11,000 resistance. The index took out its early January intraday high of 11,028 today, but the Industrials have so far been unable to take out the important 11,000 level on a closing basis. A close above 11,007 would be bullish under Dow Theory, the oldest school of technical analysis, particularly if the Dow Transports can stay above 3000; the Trannies continue to hold comfortably above that level. But the 11,000 level has been one tough obstacle for the Industrials, reflecting its importance to the health of the market and the economy as a whole. To the downside, we expect that lower trendline at about 10,700 to hold, if the Dow gets that low.

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