“Many analysts tend to underestimate the potential
of the Internet market in developing countries,” according to Nicholas
Negroponte, author of the bestseller “Being Digital” and founder of MIT’s media
lab.
“We will actually see e-commerce adoption happening with more speed
and greater innovation in the developing world,” said Negroponte in
his keynote address at IDG’s recent Internet Commerce Expo
in Boston.
“Six years ago I predicted that were would be a billion people on
the Net by the end of year 2000, and about $1 trillion worth of e-
commerce conducted online,” he said.
Much of this upcoming growth will come from developing nations, but
most forecasting and market research companies seem to be
underestimating the explosive growth of the global Internet,
Negroponte said.
But some of the biggest challenges facing developing nations lie in
decreasing the telecommunications costs for Internet access. “Most
of these countries depend on telecom taxes for a large part of
their treasury,” Negroponte said.
Internet penetration will therefore depend on innovative business models
where free Internet access is supported by advertising, a strategy which
has already begun to appear in some countries.
Similar views were expressed by another keynote speaker, U.S.
politician Newt Gingrich, formerly voted as “Man of the Year” by
Time magazine.
Countries like India and China will open up huge new markets for
the Internet economy, and are already experimenting with new
business models for widespread access to information technology.
“For instance, cellphones are being used as mobile payphones in
India,” Gingrich said.
He urged the business and entrepreneurial sectors to get more
actively involved in public life and policy making processes
regarding new media.
E-commerce taxation should be avoided until the Internet economy
accounts for about 10 to 15 percent of a country’s Gross
National Product (GNP), Gingrich recommended.
Despite optimism about the future of the Net in emerging economies,
some experts expressed concern that regions like Asia may have
fallen behind in e-commerce adoption.
“Asia got off to a great start in the Internet race two years ago–but the economic collapse has made many companies think twice about making substantial investments in Internet strategies,” said
Ian Finley, manager of enterprise marketing for Open Market, an e-commerce solutions
provider.
The U.S. economy, on the other hand, has been booming and companies
are scaling up their Internet investments–thus increasing the
gap between the U.S. and Asia.
