It’s a sector desperate for good news, or at least news that will be interpreted positively by Wall Street.
Now e-tailers and their investors are hoping that Pets.com’s (IPET) recent surge after picking up a “buy” rating from Merrill Lynch and other investment banks signals a turnaround for many stocks in the sector.
Pets.com had a weak debut on Feb. 11, offering at $11 per share and finishing the day at the same price. From there it was downhill to as low as 5 7/8 before it rebounded Thursday, gaining more than 25 percent to trade at 8 11/16 by mid-afternoon.
Normally, a “buy” rating is not treated as a ringing endorsement, but for e-tailer investors, any kind of enthusiasm is a dramatic turnabout. Since last fall, when e-tail stocks stalled even as online holiday traffic and sales exceeded forecasts, the sector has been in a downward spiral.
In the past three months, 10 e-tail stocks have lost more than 50 percent of their value through Wednesday’s trading. They are:
| Company | Loss |
| eToys | -74% |
| CyberShop.com | -73% |
| E-Stamp | -66% |
| VitaminShoppe.com | -65% |
| barnesandnoble.com | -58% |
| Value America | -58% |
| SmarterKids.com | -57% |
| Emusic.com | -57% |
| drugstore.com | -56% |
| Ashford.com | -54% |
Most of the market’s lack of support for e-tail stocks is based on concerns about sustainable business models. Selling below cost to build market share will only work for a handful of companies, even in the short run, but low (and even negative) margins are routine among e-tailers pitched in fierce and expensive combat for online customers.
Add to that the heavy spending required to build “brand” awareness — seen as indispensable to capturing market share — and you have a recipe for huge losses.
A recipe Pets.com knows well. The company posted a net loss of $61.8 million against $5.8 million in revenues. A new distribution center that opened this week in Indianapolis will greatly reduce shipping costs and soon lead to positive gross margins, according to CEO Julie Wainwright.
There was a time not long ago when enough investors accepted on faith that heavy losses could be recouped once an e-tailer established itself as the leader in its respective market, and that strong branding virtually guaranteed eventual profits.
A look at the above list of companies indicates that those days are over. (At least for now; things can change fast in the world of Internet stocks.) eToys (ETYS), E-Stamp (ESTM), barnesandnoble.com (BNBN), drugstore.com (DSCM) — these are supposed to be strong brands, yet shares are plummeting.
There is some evidence that the e-tail sector may be bottoming out. In the past three months, only four of the 40 e-tail stocks listed in internet.com’s Internet StockTracker newsletter have gained in value. They are SciQuest.com (SQST), up 73 percent; ebookers.com (EBKR), 69 percent, priceline.com (PCLN), 42 percent; and eBay (EBAY), 12 percent.
But if you look at just the past month, a full dozen e-tail stocks have increased in price. While that’s still only 30 percent of all e-tailers we track, the trend is clear. The question is whether it’s sustainable.
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