Earnings Brief: Yahoo!

Yahoo (YHOO) will report its first quarter earnings results on Wednesday, April 5. The consensus estimate is roughly $205 million in revenue and $0.09 earnings-per-share (EPS). The revenue estimate suggests 97% year-over-year growth and the earnings estimate, flat from last quarter, would mean 80% year-over-year growth. It’s interesting to note that Yahoo! has beaten consensus EPS estimates for 15 consecutive quarters.

It’s also interesting to note that Yahoo’s EPS most often remains sequentially flat for the first and second quarters. This is due to seasonal weakness in online usage, e-commerce spending, and advertisers curbing their spending. So investors shouldn’t expect too much upside potential. After reporting $588 million in revenue for the fiscal year ended 12/99, a yearly increase of roughly 140%, management stressed that such growth was admirable but unsustainable.

In addition, we’re not experiencing the usual pre-Yahoo! announcement jump. Shares often surge before the earnings call and trade lower after the fact. Even blue-chip Yahoo! hasn’t been spared the recent pull-back in tech stocks. Shares recently traded at $162, off 35% from their 52-week high of $250 reached only three months ago.

Content and e-commerce (B2C) companies are under the microscope with no near-term catalysts in sight. Companies within these sectors have better do more than just meet expectations. Otherwise, the current market sentiment will drive the market valuations to even lower levels.

Upcoming earnings announcements:



























































Ticker


Name


Reporting


Period


EPS


Prior Qtr


Prior Qtr


Prior Year


Date


Estimate


EPS


Revenue


Revenue


ARBA


Ariba


4/10/00


Q2


($

0.15)


($0.07)


$23.5M


$52.5M


AMTD


Ameritrade


4/13/00


Q2


($0.03)


($0.12)


$131.2M


$362M


JNPR


Juniper


4/13/00


Q1


$0.03


$0.02


$45M


$113M


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