With a current market capitalization of $13.7 billion, caching server and
search engine software sector leader Inktomi trades at 80x
its trailing 12 months’ revenue of $171 million.
By nearly anyone’s measure, this means that Inktomi, like the majority of
publicly traded Internet companies, is overvalued.
In most cases this is a cause for great concern among investors, and rightly
so. No stock can indefinitely continue to trade far above the issuing
company’s real value; sooner or later share price (and thus market cap) must
come into line with revenues, profits and growth rates. That’s why more than
half of all Internet stocks have fallen at least 50% this year; the entire
sector was wildly overvalued, and all but the most delusional Internet
investors knew it.
But I’ve long maintained that a handful of ‘Net companies will eventually
grow into their lofty valuations. Inktomi will be one of them.
In January, when I named Inktomi as one of my 10 stocks to watch for 2000, I
noted that the company was more overvalued in terms of TTM revenues than any
of my other HotWatch 2000 picks (which, despite what all evidence indicates,
did NOT include Intraware ).
Back then, INKT was trading at $88.75, had a market cap of $9.8 billion and
revenues of $71 million in the previously reported four quarters. That put
Inktomi’s valuation at 138x TTM revenues.
Today, despite a nearly 40% increase in its market cap, Inktomi’s valuation
as a function of TTM revenue has dropped 42%. Both trends are exactly what
investors want to see.
Which is why two Wall Street brokerages, Lehman Brothers and First Union
Securities, issued favorable reports on the company Wednesday.
Lehman started coverage of INKT with a “buy” rating, settting a target price
of $150 (shares were trading Wednesday afternoon at $124.75) and valuing
the company at 50 times its upper earnings estimate for 2001 of $383.5
million. That translates into a market cap of $19.2 billion.
First Union, meanwhile, set a 12-month price target of $145 per share for
Inktomi and upgraded its rating of the stock to “buy” from “market perform.”
I see two catalysts behind these reports. First, these Wall Street analysts
were reacting favorably to last week’s news regarding Inktomi’s alliance
with America Online and
others to improve the delivery of content via the Internet.
Under the “Content Bridge” alliance, Inktomi will provide network
infrastructure technology for delivering content. The deal is a blow to Akamai Technologies , a
rival content delivery provider that has stolen much of Inktomi’s spotlight
this year.
Second, since plunging this spring, Inktomi shares have remained relatively
stable, falling below $100 per share only once (closing at $98.31 on Aug.
1). Thanks to its 45% market share in the caching server and search engine
markets, as well as two consecutive quarters of profits, Inktomi appears to
have found a solid bottom.
With its discerning eye trained on the booming wireless market, a penchant
for allying itself with other powerful ‘Net players, dominant market share
and growing profits, Inktomi remains a leading candidate to become one of
the Internet’s biggest winners.
