As news that Yahoo (NASDAQ:YHOO) may announce this morning a $5.7 billion offer for Broadcast.com (NASDAQ:BCST) the item draws to a close a frenzied first quarter for Internet stocks and ISDEX, which jumped 90% year to date. First the Yahoo deal which marks the second time in the quarter that the firm has gone out and bought big. The first time was Geocities. with Broadcast.com I estimate the deal at $475 per unique user, a 58% premium to the average value per user for the top 10 Web sites.
Broadcast.com, however, in my mind, is worth more despite the ridiculous revenue multiple Yahoo is paying. Perhaps Broadcast.com will have to consider changing its name to Broadhoo.
Here’s the final bell for ISDEX first quarter 1999, with 21 of the 50 stocks ending the quarter up triple digit–as in more than 100%. Just 10 of the ISDEX index stocks ended the Q down, with Network Associates (NASDAQ:NETA) still bottom feeding after accounting problems zapped its shares, off 54% to $30.6875. Ouch! I think Network Solutions still makes good products however.
ISDEX ® | 31-Mar-99 | % change | 31-Dec-98 | |
The Internet Stock Index | close | from | close | |
www.isdex.com | 31-Dec-98 | |||
or 1999 IPO | ||||
ISDEX | 546.94 | 90.8% | 286.73 | |
NASDAQ | 2,461.40 | 12.3% | 2,192.69 | |
DJIA | 9,786.16 | 6.6% | 9,181.43 | |
Go2Net | GNET | $132.63 | 650% | $17.69 |
iVillage | IVIL | $100.50 | 319% | $24.00 |
Doubleclick | DCLK | $182.06 | 309% | $44.50 |
CNET | CNET | $92.13 | 258% | $25.75 |
CMG Info | CMGI | $183.06 | 244% | $53.25 |
RealNetworks | RNWK | $122.19 | 241% | $35.88 |
Excite | XCIT | $140.00 | 233% | $42.06 |
GeoCities | GCTY | $109.56 | 226% | $33.63 |
Broadcast.com | BCST | $118.19 | 209% | $38.25 |
Sportsline USA | SPLN | $45.63 | 193% | $15.56 |
Verisign | VRSN | $154.00 | 160% | $59.13 |
Prodigy | PRGY | $38.38 | 156% | $15.00 |
E*TRADE | EGRP | $58.31 | 149% | $23.39 |
Security First Technologies | SONE | $73.50 | 141% | $30.50 |
Infospace.com | INSP | $85.75 | 125% | $38.13 |
Concentric | CNCX | $74.75 | 125% | $33.25 |
@Home Network | ATHM | $157.50 | 112% | $74.25 |
Exodus | EXDS | $134.50 | 109% | $64.25 |
Verio | VRIO | $46.13 | 106% | $22.38 |
PSINet | PSIX | $42.56 | 104% | $20.88 |
Xoom.com | XMCM | $67.06 | 103% | $33.00 |
America Online | AOL | $147.00 | 90% | $77.56 |
Broadvision | BVSN | $59.75 | 87% | $32.00 |
24/7 Media | TFSM | $51.50 | 84% | $28.00 |
eBay | EBAY | $137.31 | 71% | $80.42 |
Network Solutions | NSOL | $105.75 | 62% | $65.44 |
Amazon.Com | AMZN | $172.19 | 61% | $107.08 |
USWeb | USWB | $41.25 | 56% | $26.38 |
Lycos | LCOS | $86.06 | 55% | $55.56 |
Infoseek | SEEK | $74.00 | 50% | $49.38 |
ISS Group | ISSX | $79.50 | 45% | $55.00 |
Yahoo! | YHOO | $168.38 | 42% | $118.47 |
Mindspring | MSPG | $86.06 | 41% | $61.06 |
Inktomi | INKT | $88.63 | 37% | $64.69 |
Beyond.com | BYND | $26.19 | 26% | $20.75 |
Cisco | CSCO | $109.56 | 18% | $92.81 |
Open Market | OMKT | $12.94 | 11% | $11.69 |
Earthlink Network | ELNK | $60.00 | 5% | $57.00 |
Preview Travel | PTVL | $19.00 | 3% | 18.4375 |
Broadcom | BRCM | $61.63 | 2% | $60.38 |
VocalTec | VOCLF | $11.00 | -2% | $11.25 |
CyberCash | CYCH | $14.13 | -6% | $15.00 |
CheckPoint Software | CHKPF | $43.00 | -6% | $45.81 |
CDnow | CDNW | $16.13 | -10% | $18.00 |
Egghead.com | EGGS | $18.19 | -13% | $20.81 |
Onsale | ONSL | $33.56 | -16% | $40.06 |
Security Dynamics | SDTI | $18.63 | -19% | $23.00 |
Axent | AXNT | $24.06 | -21% | $30.56 |
Cyberian Outpost | COOL | $19.75 | -28% | $27.50 |
Network Associates | NETA | $30.69 | -54% | $66.25 |
First quarter highlights:
trading. This is the second day that E*TRADE has experienced problems. If
these continue we will remove EGRP from out February HotWatch list in favor
of another Web-based broker. However, we also remember when AOL experienced
growing pains and it came through it. The trouble of success. 1 in 7 trades
occurs on the Web now.
Internet Stock Report thinks that USA Networks should not be a 61% pro forma owner of the combined entities. It is not clear to us that USA Networks provides that much value to the overall merger. We believe Lycos and TicketMaster Online-Citysearch combined are more valuable properties than USA Networks. While we believe the $6.6 billion market value placed on LCOS in the deal was fair, the 30% position of the combined firms it would own afterwards seems like a low percentage for what it’s contributing: one of the largest Internet audiences on the planet, almost on par with Yahoo in overall reach. (Being the only analyst to disagree with the deal terms at least Dave Wetherell and I agree).
The strength of MINE is it uses real people to filter the best of the Web. The drawback is that real people can only rate so many Web sites given the time limits of 24/7.
Accolades
"Fresh and provocative" -CBS
Marketwatch, who named
Steve Harmon one of the top Internet stock analysts and only independent
one honored
"I am a huge fan of Steve Harmon’s analysis"
-Kleiner Perkins’ John Doerr