Bear season erupted the past week with ISDEX off 7.6% and just 9 of the 50 stocks in the index gaining ground against a market making moves into new issues: IPOs a go-go.
Topping the gainers since July 13 is Juniper Networks (NASDAQ:JNPR), in what has become the white-hot sector — infrastructure. I call it ‘Internet 2,’ broadband meets broader demand and it spells new pipes, new software, new tools. Sort of a ‘Back to the Future’ without Michael J. Fox or the cab driver from Taxi (what was his name?).
For those of you who want to skip to the credits consider that in 1994-95 the hottest stocks in this space were all building supply companies. Who? Netscape. Quarterdeck. Sun.
NetManage. Spyglass. Cisco. UUNET.
Here we are again as a newer, faster Internet builds out and the fatter pipe fitters (Juniper, Gadzoox), fatter content plays (Broadcast.com, now part of Yahoo; Liquid Audio, MP3.com) are en vogue.
Except for Broadcast.com, which I think Yahoo got a great deal on, the others are all newbies in the IPO arena. Speaking of Broadcast.com,
the replacement stock in ISDEX for it is Priceline.com (NASDAQ:PCLN), the Web-enabled name your price service.
Of the movers this week on the plus side Ticketmaster-CitySearch (NASDAQ:TMCS) popped 10% on news it will acquire the entertainment side of Microsoft’s Sidewalk (another misguided Microsoft Web effort, which began with the original MSN).
To be fair Microsoft’s efforts in travel, cars and investment sites has been competitive and it has a top 3 Web presence. And a Microsoft.com spinout would probably be the largest Net IPO ever. My estimate on valuing Microsoft’s Web story comes in at about $35 billion based on $800 million estimated revenue for that unit as whole, traffic, users, brand, management. If we toss in Microsoft’s Web investments into the mix it really gets interesting.
Let’s check the stats:
| ISDEX ® | 20-Jul-99 | % change | |
| The Internet Stock Index | close | from | |
| www.isdex.com | 13-Jul-99 | ||
| for isdex history file click here | close | ||
| ISDEX | 509.47 | -7.6% | |
| NASDAQ | 2,732.18 | -1.7% | |
| DJIA | 10,996.45 | -1.6% | |
| Juniper Networks | JNPR | $ 138.00 | 10% |
| Ticketmaster-CitySearch | TMCS | $ 38.75 | 10% |
| Concentric | CNCX | $ 36.00 | 8% |
| CheckPoint Software | CHKP | $ 60.13 | 6% |
| Verio | VRIO | $ 80.00 | 4% |
| Sportsline USA | SPLN | $ 38.38 | 3% |
| CDnow | CDNW | $ 20.94 | 3% |
| USWeb | USWB | $ 24.56 | 2% |
| Infospace.com | INSP | $ 52.38 | 1% |
| Verisign | VRSN | $ 82.50 | 0% |
| Healtheon | HLTH | $ 63.13 | 0% |
| Open Market | OMKT | $ 14.94 | 0% |
| Ariba | ARBA | $ 110.00 | -4% |
| Lycos | LCOS | $ 95.81 | -4% |
| Cisco | CSCO | $ 62.25 | -5% |
| Go2Net | GNET | $ 76.44 | -5% |
| Amazon.Com | AMZN | $ 120.13 | -5% |
| PSINet | PSIX | $ 57.75 | -5% |
| Network Solutions | NSOL | $ 70.00 | -5% |
| Broadcom | BRCM | $ 132.00 | -6% |
| Axent | AXNT | $ 15.38 | -7% |
| Network Associates | NETA | $ 18.06 | -7% |
| Mindspring | MSPG | $ 44.38 | -8% |
| Infoseek | SEEK | $ 40.00 | -8% |
| iVillage | IVIL | $ 48.00 | -8% |
| Prodigy | PRGY | $ 24.94 | -8% |
| CNET | CNET | $ 45.38 | -9% |
| Doubleclick | DCLK | $ 87.63 | -9% |
| Yahoo! | YHOO | $ 142.13 | -9% |
| America Online | AOL | $ 113.19 | -10% |
| Exodus | EXDS | $ 122.50 | -10% |
| eBay | EBAY | $ 112.94 | -10% |
| Broadcast.com | BCST | $ 109.75 | -10% |
| Broadvision | BVSN | $ 68.50 | -10% |
| @Home Network | ATHM | $ 45.06 | -10% |
| Earthlink Network | ELNK | $ 58.75 | -10% |
| RealNetworks | RNWK | $ 77.81 | -10% |
| Beyond.com | BYND | $ 26.31 | -11% |
| StarMedia | STRM | $ 48.38 | -12% |
| E*TRADE | EGRP | $ 33.06 | -13% |
| CyberCash | CYCH | $ 11.00 | -13% |
| Security Dynamics | SDTI | $ 19.75 | -13% |
| Inktomi | INKT | $ 108.50 | -14% |
| CMG Info | CMGI | $ 97.56 | -14% |
| Preview Travel | PTVL | $ 20.50 | -16% |
| Xoom.com | XMCM | $ 46.13 | -17% |
| Security First Technologies | SONE | $ 37.31 | -19% |
| Onsale | ONSL | $ 17.66 | -22% |
| 24/7 Media | TFSM | $ 33.25 | -22% |
| ISS Group | ISSX | $ 26.56 | -28% |
fronts: 1) sales (combined will be about $500m); 2) brand (forward going will be known as Egghead.com); 3) Amazon is moving into tech products as are others.
Accolades:
"Fresh and provocative" -CBS Marketwatch, who named Steve Harmon one of the top Internet stock analysts and only independent one honored
"I am a huge fan of Steve Harmon’s analysis" -Kleiner Perkins’ John Doerr