ISDEX is up more in the past week alone than the Dow has done all year. And the
50-strong Internet Stock Index is almost on par in a week with what NASDAQ
has done all year. Hoochie mama.
Leader of the pack attack since March 30 is RealNetworks, (NASDAQ:RNWK – news)
which ran on the Yahoo-Broadcast.com deal. The logic says if Broadcast.com
went who’s next? Real has two attractive pieces for a possible buyer:
leading streaming software servers/clients with tens of millions of
downloads; and 2) one of the largest audio-video sites on the Web.
Note
to Steve Case, here’s a way to save the investment banker deal fee: I
estimate Real’s real value could be close to $7 billion. Here’s how: the
software side at $3 billion and the portal side at $4 billion.
But you
know who could be a better buyer, or a hungrier one? Intel. In one swoop it
enters the chip-sapping multimedia Internet market and has sexy, cool
content. Probably not a buyer though, too conservative of a player.
Let’s
see hot and not stocks:
ISDEX ® | 06-Apr-99 | % change | |
The Internet Stock Index | close | from | |
www.isdex.com | 30-Mar-99 | ||
ISDEX | 617.49 | 13.6% | |
NASDAQ | 2,563.17 | 3.3% | |
DJIA | 9,963.49 | 0.5% | |
RealNetworks | RNWK | $195.44 | 58% |
Beyond.com | BYND | $31.50 | 42% |
Broadcast.com | BCST | $156.38 | 38% |
Concentric | CNCX | $97.00 | 31% |
E*TRADE | EGRP | $76.00 | 31% |
Doubleclick | DCLK | $121.00 | 31% |
Infospace.com | INSP | $106.25 | 30% |
GeoCities | GCTY | $139.50 | 26% |
CMG Info | CMGI | $229.63 | 25% |
Yahoo! | YHOO | $214.88 | 25% |
Lycos | LCOS | $108.81 | 24% |
Security First Technologies | SONE | $89.00 | 23% |
Earthlink Network | ELNK | $72.56 | 21% |
Verisign | VRSN | $161.13 | 20% |
Mindspring | MSPG | $105.38 | 20% |
Preview Travel | PTVL | $20.94 | 18% |
CNET | CNET | $110.63 | 17% |
Broadcom | BRCM | $70.88 | 17% |
America Online | AOL | $167.50 | 16% |
Exodus | EXDS | $160.00 | 14% |
Amazon.Com | AMZN | $182.88 | 11% |
eBay | EBAY | $152.00 | 11% |
Infoseek | SEEK | $84.06 | 10% |
Sportsline USA | SPLN | $51.38 | 9% |
iVillage | IVIL | $101.63 | 9% |
Network Solutions | NSOL | $115.50 | 9% |
Excite | XCIT | $149.94 | 8% |
Xoom.com | XMCM | $75.56 | 8% |
Open Market | OMKT | $14.00 | 7% |
@Home Network | ATHM | $162.13 | 6% |
Cisco | CSCO | $115.25 | 5% |
PSINet | PSIX | $45.13 | 3% |
Go2Net | GNET | $134.44 | 2% |
24/7 Media | TFSM | $48.31 | 2% |
Prodigy | PRGY | $39.25 | 1% |
Inktomi | INKT | $89.63 | 0% |
Onsale | ONSL | $33.38 | 0% |
CyberCash | CYCH | $14.63 | -2% |
Cyberian Outpost | COOL | $19.06 | -3% |
Broadvision | BVSN | $61.75 | -3% |
VocalTec | VOCLF | $10.69 | -3% |
CDnow | CDNW | $16.06 | -4% |
USWeb | USWB | $40.13 | -5% |
Egghead.com | EGGS | $17.25 | -5% |
Security Dynamics | SDTI | $16.88 | -6% |
ISS Group | ISSX | $69.75 | -6% |
Verio | VRIO | $42.00 | -9% |
Network Associates | NETA | $21.94 | -25% |
CheckPoint Software | CHKPF | $30.13 | -29% |
Axent | AXNT | $8.75 | -73% |
News behind the moves:
as the security firm announces a $50 million stock acquisition of UK-based
PassGo, which makes products that control access to Webs. While AXNT gets a
downgrade from several research analysts based on the in-process research
and development charge of up to 30% of the purchase price. But I believe
the buy helps position AXENT in two ways: in Europe and in offering more
security solutions. Short-term earnings hit for longer term possible gain.
Who says logic has anything to do with stock movement?
software ESD effort Buydirect.com for $123 million stock. BYND finally
starts to move on the deal which I think could add $15 million to $20
million to Beyond’s revenue if not this year then 2000.
software maker, announces a 2-for-1 stock split. The firm came under fire
from a Barron’s article March 28 that played up growing competition from
larger rivals. Security is getting more competitive as companies seek
solution providers in all areas of security and want more services to
support them I believe.
million from a series of venture and capital sources. At the same time (and
probably due in part to the success of iVillage’s IPO) Looksmart says it’s
now focused on being a “women’s portal.” Part of that comes from its 61%
female users already on the service. Post-money valuation was about $400
million. I expect Looksmart to be looking smarter if it gets an IPO off soon.
as the portal network inks a deal with startup Online Anywhere to bring
Yahoo Everywhere to non-Web platforms such as PDAs. Yahoo’s move signals
the built-in leverage it has with its reach in a multiplier effect with
acquisitions GeoCities and Broadcast.com. It also shows the cross-platform
ability some Web brands have to move into information and communications
mediums in general. I recall in January when many observers thought a media
firm would acquire Yahoo that I posited that Yahoo may acquire a media firm.
Accolades:
"Fresh and provocative" -CBS
Marketwatch, who named
Steve Harmon one of the top Internet stock analysts and only independent
one honored
"I am a huge fan of Steve Harmon’s analysis"
-Kleiner Perkins’ John Doerr