I had a chance to visit MP3.com (MPPP)
and meet its young CEO and founder, Michael Robertson. It’s hard to
believe that his company had only five employees in January 1999; now the
company is bursting at the seams, with over 280 employees.
Michael Robertson had the vision to see that the Web would revolutionize
the antiquated music industry, by disrupting the existing distribution
system. As he says, “music is about moving bits around.”
For MP3.com, the company is moving huge amounts of bits on its servers. In
August, its page views were 77 million, with about 408,000 unique daily
visitors.
While MP3.com has a strong relative valuation, I think it is poised to
widen its lead. Here are the valuation metrics:
Company | Price | Market Cap | Annualized Revenues | Revenue Multiples |
MP3.com | $ 31.75 | 2100 | 7.60 | 276.32 |
Musicmaker.com | $ 17.31 | 530 | 0.13 | 4076.92 |
Emusic.com | $ 18.81 | 295 | 0.20 | 1475.00 |
Liquid Audio | $ 36.38 | 685 | 3.00 | 228.33 |
Launch Media | $ 14.56 | 184 | 14.00 | 228.33 |
Oh, and MP3.com also happens to have $435 million in the bank.
Some Background
MP3.com has two kinds of customers:
Music Fans: Unlike most other music sites, you can actually listen to songs
in their entirety on MP3.com — not 30 second snippets. You can also set-up
your own MyMP3.com. Here, you can keep track of the songs you like. In
fact, as you do this, MP3.com will then begin to understand your tastes and
recommend music to you.
Top of Form 1
Bottom of Form 1
Artists: The music industry has undergone little change over the past
decades. Perhaps the reason is that record labels make tons of money. So
why change?
Dealing with a traditional record label is a raw deal. An artist signs a
contract — which is exclusive — for five to seven years, which obligates
about one album per year. The label owns the rights to the music — forever.
What’s more, the label pays a paltry 10 percent of the CDs sold. However, this is
net of the marketing costs the label had to spend to promote the album.
Perhaps this is why many artists are broke.
Being an artist with MP3.com is much fairer. MP3.com does not own
the rights. In fact, an artist can leave anytime (although, the attrition
rate is very low). Revenues are split 50-50 — and that’s without
subtracting marketing costs, or any other costs.
There are no fees for the artist. Instead, an artist must only agree to
post one full-length song that is free to everyone. The artist can then
elect to sell the rest of the songs or give them away.
In a sense, MP3.com gives the artists the means to run their own virtual
record labels. MP3.com keeps track of vital stats, such as downloads, sales
and traffic, as well as what regions the visitors are from.
The artists can create and sell their own CDs. It is an easy process, which
can take less then 48 hours.
The system seems to be working. MP3.com has 27,000 groups, which have
posted over 150,000 songs. About 200 sign up every day.
Conclusion
The site is divided into about 270 different music styles (country,
alternative and so on). Each song is ranked within each category. The
result is that artists are highly incentivised to generate high-quality
content. In a way, the system is self-regulating. What’s more, the artists
are also motivated to heavily promote their work, which means more and
more popularity for MP3.com.
With its loyal base, MP3.com has been tracking everything — then mining the
data for as much insight as possible.
This is what traditional labels cannot do. They don’t know their customers,
since labels transport CDs through distribution networks, which are then
sold in retail stores.
Wouldn’t the music labels really like to know what customers like?
Wouldn’t they pay money for this?
Well, there are major companies doing just that. In fact, MP3.com signed
perhaps the most amazing advertising contract ever. The deal was struck on
July 1999, in which Groupe Arnault committed to purchase $150 million in
advertising, promotion and marketing services over the next three years.
MP3.com is not about a music standard; it is not about selling CDs; it is
not even about content. Rather, MP3.com is a music service provider (MSP).
Just as an Internet Service Provider (ISP) gives people the tools to surf
the Web and Application Service Providers (ASPs) help companies run their
networks, MSPs allow artists to promote their work. It’s a distribution
infrastructure that works. And much like eBay, it is an explosive viral
model, which should be music to investors’ ears.
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