While Wall Street uses its sun dial to try and keep track of Internet
years we pull out two more investment metrics that empower investors to get
various angles on Internet companies from a user and page view perspective.
Say hello to the Internet User Value Index (ValUDex) and Page View Index
(PageDex).
These two new indices join the industry-leading Internet Stock Index
(ISDEX) as a three-part valuation method from yours truly to get inside the
numbers, bring to life the differences between companies and perceived
worth, and generally try to walk the shining path to a more enlightened, or
at least, semi-brightened numbers game.
Go ye forth and multiply, or at least make heavy use of the DEX suffix:
THE WEB INDEXES (WEBDEX)
ValUDex | |||
Internet User Value Index | |||
Web Property | January | Market cap | Value |
Web Brand | Users | or PMV * | Per |
(millions) | (millions) | User | |
Yahoo | 27.9 | $ 2,737 | $ 98.19 |
Netscape.com* | 21.4 | $ 600 | $ 27.99 |
Microsoft.com* | 15.7 | $ 1,500 | $ 95.70 |
Excite | 15.2 | $ 701 | $ 46.21 |
Infoseek | 11.7 | $ 379 | $ 32.40 |
AOL.com* | 11.2 | $ 1,000 | $ 88.94 |
GeoCities | 10.5 | $ 300 | $ 28.58 |
MSN | 7.2 | $ 600 | $ 83.71 |
Lycos | 6.8 | $ 599 | $ 88.18 |
AltaVista* | 6.8 | $ 325 | $ 48.05 |
TOTAL | 134.3 | $ 8,740 | $ 65.08 |
AVERAGE | 13.4 | $ 874 | $ 65.08 |
* our est. private market value for the .com Web site only | |||
User data: RelevantKnowledge | |||
ValUDex is a creation of Mecklermedia | |||
Market cap as of 02.18.98 | |||
PageDex | |||
Page View Value Index | |||
Web Property | Average Daily | Market cap | Value |
Web Brand | Page Views | or PMV * | Per Avg. Daily |
(millions) | (millions) | Page View | |
Yahoo | 65 | $ 2,737 | $ 42.11 |
AOL.com* | 35 | $ 1,000 | $ 28.57 |
GeoCities | 35 | $ 300 | $ 8.57 |
Netscape | 33 | $ 600 | $ 18.18 |
Excite | 30 | $ 701 | $ 23.35 |
Microsoft.com* | 30 | $ 1,500 | $ 50.00 |
MSN | 29 | $ 600 | $ 20.69 |
Infoseek | 22 | $ 379 | $ 17.23 |
Lycos | 19 | $ 599 | $ 31.50 |
AltaVista | 18 | $ 325 | $ 18.06 |
TOTAL | 316 | $ 8,740 | $ 258.25 |
AVERAGE | 32 | $ 874 | $ 25.83 |
* our est. private market value for the .com Web site only | |||
Page view data: Mecklermedia estimates based on MediaMetrix | |||
PageDex is a creation of Mecklermedia | |||
Market cap as of 02.18.98 |
In Mecklermedia’s Internet User Value Index (ValUDex) for private firms, we
estimate value based on comparables and experience. For public companies
such as Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), which owns several Web brands or sites, we
estimate the .com part on its own, and leave the company’s other divisions
not valued.
Does that mean that Excite (NASDAQ:XCIT) at $46.21 per user is a bargain
compared to Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) at $98.19 per user? You decide. A number of
factors influence, including first to market status, overall audience size,
brand awareness, and working capital (Yahoo! has more than $100 million vs.
Excite’s $27 million). Ultimately, it’s a going forward or expectation
basis that determines much of perceived value.
In Mecklermedia’s Page View Index (PageDex) it shows GeoCities (which just
went through another round of financing and we estimate could be worth
about $300 million) at $8.57 per page view, a substantial discount to any
of the others based on that metric alone. With these two new metrics you’ll
be there if GeoCities paves the way to tomorrow’s online service.
With ValUDex and PageDex, you’ll be inside the numbers in a space where
value is not only in the eye of the beholder but in constant flux.
