Overdoing Etail? Etail Enablers & Sellers Gain Most

Web-based retail, or etail as the word du jour goes, is the hottest sector of Internet stocks with a 24% gain in two weeks. Close behind are the etail enablers, those that make the ‘ka-ching’ happen behind the scenes. How does a 13% rise grab you?


Year to date enablers lead the pack through July 7 with 145% straight percent gain, beating the portals in returns.


It makes you wonder why mainstream media regurgitates portalmania as if that’s the last word in Internet stocks. Yes they’ve had digital hormone-induced growth. It’s time for a new story and plenty of Internet stocks to choose from, content being primary in our view as we believe it drives commerce. Here’s the stat fest, our latest abacus tweaking:















































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































Mecklermedia’s

 

07-Jul-98

% change

Point change

ISDEX ®

 

close

from

from

The Internet Stock Index

 

 

23-Jun-98

23-Jun-98

where Wall Street meets the Web

 

 

 

 

ISDEX Geometric Avg.

 

166.02

10.0%

15.14

ISDEX Price Wtd.

 

1,915.28

13.0%

219.88

NASDAQ

 

1,908.11

3.4%

63.54

DJIA

 

9,085.04

2.9%

256.58

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CONTENT

 

 

 

 

CNET

CNWK

$66.13

-2%

-$1.44

Sportsline USA

SPLN

$36.00

0%

$0.00

WavePhore

WAVO

$10.88

-14%

-$1.75

Mecklermedia

MECK

$26.00

24%

$5.00

NewsEdge

NEWZ

$8.25

-6%

-$5.13

TOTAL

 

$147.25

 

-$3.31

WEIGHTED AVERAGE

 

$29.45

1%

-$0.66

 

 

 

 

 

ACCESS/SERVICES

 

 

 

 

Earthlink Network

ELNK

$71.22

-7%

-$5.16

Mindspring

MSPG

$93.25

19%

$14.88

PSINet

PSIX

$14.88

17%

$2.13

Concentric

CNCX

$37.13

38%

$10.13

Metricom

MCOM

$7.25

-17%

-$1.50

TOTAL

 

$223.72

 

$20.47

WEIGHTED AVERAGE

 

$44.74

10%

$4.09

 

 

 

 

 

COMMERCE RETAILERS

 

 

 

 

Amazon.Com

AMZN

$122.13

32%

$29.44

N2K

NTKI

$22.31

21%

$3.81

Onsale

ONSL

$24.81

-10%

-$2.69

CDnow

CDNW

$23.19

23%

$4.31

E*TRADE

EGRP

$22.88

8%

$1.75

Egghead.com

EGGS

$15.50

91%

$7.38

TOTAL

 

$230.81

 

$44.00

WEIGHTED AVERAGE

 

$38.47

24%

$7.33

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

COMMERCE ENABLERS

 

 

 

 

CMG Info

CMGI

$68.63

13%

$7.88

USWeb

USWB

$26.31

10%

$2.50

Network Solutions

NSOL

$44.38

0%

$0.00

Doubleclick

DCLK

$62.00

44%

$18.81

CheckFree

CKFR

$29.00

6%

$1.69

CyberCash

CYCH

$12.94

-11%

-$1.56

CKS Group

CKSG

$22.50

8%

$1.75

TOTAL

 

$265.75

 

$31.06

WEIGHTED AVERAGE

 

$37.96

13%

$4.44

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NAVIGATION/AGGREGATORS

 

 

 

 

Excite

XCIT

$96.25

16%

$13.50

Yahoo!

YHOO

$191.00

29%

$42.94

Lycos

LCOS

$85.00

24%

$16.25

America Online

AOL

$108.88

2%

$2.63

Intuit

INTU

$60.75

6%

$3.25

@Home Network

ATHM

$48.38

23%

$9.13

Infoseek

SEEK

$35.31

16%

$4.88

TOTAL

 

$625.56

 

$92.56

WEIGHTED AVERAGE

 

$89.37

17%

$13.22

 

 

 

 

 

SOFTWARE

 

 

 

 

RealNetworks

RNWK

$35.50

-1%

-$0.50

Broadvision

BVSN

$25.63

32%

$6.19

Open Market

OMKT

$18.06

0%

-$0.06

Spyglass

SPYG

$12.00

4%

$0.50

Netscape

NSCP

$36.00

37%

$9.81

Open Text

OTEXF

$14.00

-8%

-$1.19

Versant Object Technologies

VSNT

$4.25

-3%

-$0.13

TOTAL

 

$145.44

 

$14.63

WEIGHTED AVERAGE

 

$20.78

11%

$2.09

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SECURITY

 

 

 

 

Verisign

VRSN

$42.25

10%

$4.00

Cylink

CYLK

$11.69

12%

$1.25

Network Associates

NETA

$48.75

8%

$3.44

Axent

AXNT

$29.00

-1%

-$0.38

Cyberguard

CYBG

$10.00

13%

$1.13

Security First Net Bank

SFNB

$17.00

62%

$6.50

Secure Computing

SCUR

$10.75

19%

$1.75

CheckPoint Software

CHKPF

$29.00

1%

$0.38

Security Dynamics

SDTI

$17.88

5%

$0.78

TOTAL

 

$216.31

 

$18.84

WEIGHTED AVERAGE

 

$24.03

10%

$2.09

 

 

 

 

 

IP COMMUNICATIONS

 

 

 

 

IDT Corp

IDTC

$26.88

-4%

-$1.13

VocalTec

VOCLF

$12.88

11%

$1.25

TOTAL

 

$39.75

 

$0.13

WEIGHTED AVERAGE

 

$19.88

0%

$0.06

 

 

 

 

 

HIGH-SPEED SOLUTIONS

 

 

 

 

PairGain

PAIR

$16.31

-15%

-$2.81

Broadband Technologies

BBTK

$4.38

-7%

-$0.31

TOTAL

 

$20.69

 

-$3.13

WEIGHTED AVERAGE

 

$10.34

-13%

-$1.56

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

OVERALL TOTAL

 

4,145.59

13%

461.61

SIMPLE AVERAGE

 

60.96

13%

6.79



  • 98.07.06: Egghead.com (NASDAQ:EGGS), which we’ve long said in this report was undervalued, finally gets some respect after disclosing its surplusauction.com Web site revenue fuels 95% revenue growth from last quarter. EGGS zooms 64% to $14.81 per share, also a new high for the Web-based retailer.

  • 98.07.06: Yahoo! (NASDAQ:YHOO) hits $200 per share, up 15%, leading us to reiterate an expected stock split here again.

  • 98.07.03: Broadvision (NASDAQ:BVSN) stock gets initial coverage by Wheat First with a “buy.” We estimate BVSN trades at 11x 1998 sales. First quarter revenue was $10 million with about $500k loss. Broadvision’s one-to-one marketing software solution is designed to deliver the holy grail of marketing: what people want based on who they are. A lot of competition coming, though, as every startup also sees guts and glory in the same story.

  • 98.07.03: Netscape (NASDAQ:NSCP) again climbs with a phenomenal 41 million shares traded, about 10x average! Shares up 15% to $41.31 per share, getting close to its 52-week high. Netcenter deals for white and yellow page directories from infospace.com fuel the rise today. Co-founder and mascot Marc Andreessen told us back in January that content was king, Netcenter was a focus. If Marc’s on the job we think it’ll come out fine. We’d still like a new twist though from a true Web pioneer rather than playing “let’s be Yahoo!”

  • 98.06.30: Sportsline USA (NASDAQ:SPLN) shares zoom after it agrees to acquire golf etailer International Golf Outlet Inc. Terms = 46,924 SPLN shares valued at $1.65 million and $350k cash. The deal could reach another $1.5 million if the etail effort meets targets over next three years. We think the buy was a good one for Sportsline and a cheap one. Audience leverage necessitates commerce at some juncture for most content sites. Content and commerce, affinity marketing, are central to the Web. SPLN closes up 16% at $39.563 per share on double average volume, 1.2 million shares.

  • 98.06.29: AOL (NYSE:AOL) plans to offer $500 million common in a block trade off of its universal shelf registration statement. The move will help cash up the online king and could put a lot of pressure on Web firms without the deep pockets to compete in everything from access to content to search to IP telephony.

  • 98.06.29: Mecklermedia (NASDAQ:MECK), the global leader in Internet trade shows and news, announces its second annual Internet World Summer ’98, being held July 13-17, 1998, at Chicago’s McCormick Place. (Mecklermedia also produces this report).

  • 98.06.25: Mindspring (NASDAQ:MSPG) shares rocket up more than 17% to a new 52-week high of $96 per share before closing at $94.875. Causing the move? MSPG’s announcement of a 3-for-1 stock split to holders of record July 9. Each receives the share dividend scheduled for July 29. Adding fuel to the mule run is Mindspring chairman Charles Brewer talking about the consumer ISP’s prospects. Yes, the ‘CNBC effect’ is in full swing.


    Despite the jump MSPG market capitalization lags behind its rival Earthlink (NASDAQ:ELNK) by about $50 million so the gain was probably long overdue anyway in our opinion. Most of the buying was small lots, indicating retail investors who may be under the false assumption that more shares = more value or bang for the buck. Said another way: 1 divided by 3 = 1, unless those smaller pieces can grow.

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