Mobile Internet device manufacturer Research in Motion saw a steep drop in
its stock price Wednesday, following an analyst’s charge that the company
was in danger of losing its distribution deal AOL Time Warner — an
allegation now coming under fire from industry watchers and company
insiders.
Since early last year, AOL has been reselling a custom version of RIM’s
Wireless Handheld pager as part of its “AOLanywhere” multi-platform access
initiative. However, CIBC World Markets’ Thomas Sepenzis said in a report
Wednesday afternoon that the companies’ relationship had deteriorated as of
late, stemming from RIM’s decision to more than double the price it would
charge AOL for a branded Wireless Handheld.
Since AOL partially subsidizes the cost of the wireless device — resold
as the “AOL Mobile Communicator” — to woo teenage users to its subscription
service, RIM’s price hike would make such subsidization wildly
impracticable, according to the report. Sepenzis therefore wrote that he
doubted the online giant would order more devices from RIM — effectively
terminating a lucrative distribution channel for the Ontario-based wireless
manufacturer.
As a result of the report, investors hurried to dump the stock during the
last two hours of Wednesday trading. Shares of RIMM eventually closed down
$3.35, or 8.8 percent.
But now, other industry watchers are challenging Sepenzis’ findings.
Goldman Sachs weighed in before market open with positive comments about the
stock, saying it couldn’t substantiate the CIBC report. Additionally,
Goldman analysts wrote that their predictions for the stock hadn’t even
factored in income from the AOL OEM deal, and that such revenue would be
only upside to already healthy predictions for the company.
Similarly, Merrill Lynch wrote that it too considered AOL’s orders less
important than other distribution channels, and the overall wellness of
business IT spending. For Merrill too, the AOL deal, if it continues, is
just a pleasant bonus.
Investor hopes soared after RIM reported on April 11 that revenue for its
fourth quarter that ended Feb. 28 was unexpectedly high due to extra sales
to AOL. RIM’s reported $90.1 million in revenue vaulted over the Street’s
$74.3 million hopes — and the company was quick to add that similar AOL
gains weren’t a sure thing in the following quarter, guiding the Street to
expect $75 million to $80 million in first-quarter revenue. From its
earnings announcement to Tuesday’s close, the company’s stock rose 73
percent, from $21.93 to $38. CIBC World Markets has done banking for RIM in
the past three years.
Neither Dulles, Va.-based AOL nor RIM is commenting officially, though a
spokesperson for RIM confirmed that the two sides are “still working
together today.”
Furthermore, insiders at both companies familiar with the deal told
internetnews.com that the CIBC report was “totally unfounded,” with both
partners very happy with the relationship — though the sources declined to
discuss specifics of the arrangement.
An AOL executive, speaking on condition of anonymity, added that the
company wasn’t considering leaving RIM for another supplier.
At press time, shares of RIMM were trading up 0.43 percent, at $34.85.
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