Stocks Gain On Port Truce, Iraq Hopes

Stocks rose Tuesday after President Bush eased Iraq war fears and ordered an 80-day cooling off period in the West Coast port lockout.

The Nasdaq rose 9 to 1129, the S&P 500 gained 13 to 798, and the Dow climbed 78 to 7501. Volume soared to 1.94 billion shares on the NYSE, and 1.84 billion on the Nasdaq. Decliners led 17 to 15 on the NYSE, and 16 to 15 on the Nasdaq. Upside volume was 58% on the NYSE, but only 42% on the Nasdaq.

Cisco and Intel closed at new lows. Bear Stearns said downside risk to Cisco’s quarter may be more than expected. Cisco reports Nov. 6.

Yahoo rose 4.7% ahead of earnings after the close on Wednesday.

SBC fell 2.6% despite reaffirming guidance.

RSA gained 20% on a deal with Microsoft .

University of Phoenix Online gained 5% on better than expected results.

Some technical comments on the market: Note: To see the charts in the text email newsletter, click on the story link at the top of the newsletter.

Today’s market internals were very weak, suggesting that this bounce may not get very far. With the market heading up into tomorrow’s cycle turn date, we could be headed back down again by Thursday. On the plus side, the NYSE has recorded two minus 1100 TICKs in the last two days on small point declines, which suggests that downside momentum may be waning. The seasonal cycle remains weak until early November, so we hold out hope that the market can put in a stronger bottom, complete with high fear and 90% downside days, between now and November 8. The Dow (first chart below) became the final index to break its 1998 low today (7379.70). The index recovered nicely, but the inability of that level to hold suggests more downside eventually. It is also a day of some historical significance, since it was the first time since 1974 that the Dow broke its previous four-year cycle low. Support is 7380, 7331 and 6950-7161, and resistance is 7622 and 7750. The S&P (second chart) has support at 775 and 750, and resistance at 809 and 830. The Nasdaq (third chart) has resistance at 1144 and 1160, and support at 1110, 1100 and 1050-1084. The SOX, the semiconductor index (fourth chart), broke 217 support and could be headed to 180-200.





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