The bulls have yet to put together a convincing rally. Perhaps Friday will be a different story, but so far the weak action — uninspiring internals despite triple-digit gains in the Dow — suggests that a retest of the lows may still lie ahead. On the plus side, options traders are showing plenty of skepticism, and other sentiment indicators have backed off bullish extremes too.
The S&P (first chart below) faces important resistance at 1480 and 1488, and support is 1461 and 1451. The Nasdaq (second chart) has support at 2557, 2550 and 2531, and resistance is 2607-2617. The Dow (third chart) has support at 13,350-13,362 and 13,310, and resistance is 13,500-13,520, 13,568 and 13,640. The 10-year yield (fourth chart) continues to consolidate just above its 200-day average. With all the money that has flowed into bonds in the last two months, stocks could get a nice boost if that trade begins to unwind.
Paul Shread is a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) and member of the Market Technicians Association