Technical Analysis: Dow Makes It Close

The Dow (first chart below) just missed taking out its August closing high of 9053.64, the level at which Dow Theory Letters editor Richard Russell says the Dow would confirm the Transports’ breakout to new highs. Richard Moroney, editor of Dow Theory Forecasts, had the Dow confirmation level at 8931.68, the November high, so that level has already been surpassed. How reliable is Dow Theory? According to Martin Pring’s Technical Analysis Explained, of 26 Dow Theory buy signals from 1897-1998, only 2 failed (1940 and 1948). There is some latitude in interpreting the theory, but the general record is sound. Above 9053, 9077 and 9106 are the next resistance levels. Support is now 9000. The S&P (second chart) has support at 979, 965 and 950, and resistance at 1000, 1020-1030 and 1056. The Nasdaq (third chart) has support at 1620, 1600, 1548-1552 and 1540, and resistance at 1670-1720. The NYSE internals recovered nicely today, but the 74% upside volume in the Nasdaq (80% would have been preferable) marks four straight days of deteriorating internals, a sign that buying pressure may be starting to wane here. Lots of news the next two days, with initial jobless claims, factory orders and Intel’s mid-quarter update tomorrow, and May employment figures on Friday.

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