Technical Analysis: Good News, Bad News

The good news is the indexes all broke out to new rally highs today; the bad news is they came on lower volume and deteriorating new highs-new lows. The good news is that the Friday before Labor Day is up about 75% of the time historically; the bad news is that the market will have to overcome weak guidance from Intel and the August jobs report if traders are going to put Friday in the plus column. And next week begins the weakest part of the year for the market, historically down 62% of the time between Sept. 5 and Oct. 27. A lot of crosscurrents at work here. The market could continue to trend higher a while longer, but we’d be surprised if September and October pass without at least some jitters. The Nasdaq (first chart below) ran into the tough 1880 resistance zone today. If the techs can continue higher, 1900 is next. Support is 1860-1865, 1850 and 1840. The S&P (second chart) finally cleared the 1106-1112 resistance zone, which should now be support, with 1101-1103 below that. Resistance is 1120, 1123, 1125, 1127 and 1130-1132. The Dow (third chart) is back at 10,300-10,350 resistance, and support is 10,260, 10,200-10,220 and 10,160.

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