Technical Analysis: Reversal Back Down

A reversal on rising volume to create yet another distribution day. However, so far neither sellers nor buyers have shown much conviction, so it’s possible the trading range continues a while longer. Critical support for tomorrow is 7775 on the Dow (first chart below), 822-823 on the S&P (second chart) and 1263-1273 on the Nasdaq (third chart). Resistance is 7900-7925 and 8000 on the Dow, 840 and 845 on the S&P, and 1310-1315 on the Nasdaq. Finally, yesterday’s high close in the equity-only put-call ratio did appear to be due in part to short-covering; open interest in near-the-money QQQ calls rose while open interest in puts declined. The down day for the VIX, the options volatility index, was a warning that might be occurring. Today’s reading of .67 is showing some complacency for a down day, along with another decline for the VIX.

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