Technical Analysis: Which Way After June 30?

Which way will the market head after June 30? If recent history is any guide, the direction could be down. The Fed has raised interest rates three times since 1994, and each time, a correction of three weeks or longer followed the first rate increase. Even in mid-1999, the Dow edged higher for two weeks after the first rate hike, but then it fell for the next three. That’s hardly a statistically relevant sample, but historically, rate hikes in general have not been good for stocks. One short-term negative today was the put-call ratio, which showed no fear at all on today’s reversal. The Nasdaq (first chart below) has found support at 2013-2014 for the last three days, while 2040 has become formidable resistance. Below 2013, there are numerous supports between 1993-2007. The S&P (second chart) faces major resistance at 1142 and 1147-1150. Support is 1130-1132, 1125 and 1120. The Dow (third chart) faces resistance at 10,400, 10,440 and 10,485, and support is 10,300-10,307 and 10,254.

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