Techs, Nets Battle Back From Steep Plunge

Technology and Internet stocks battled back from a steep opening plunge on Friday after PMC Sierra guided estimates sharply lower. Stocks turned around after former Fed official Alice Rivlin said she expects a half-point rate cut from the Fed next week.

The ISDEX http://www.wsrn.com/apps/ISDEX/ was unchanged at 424 after trading as low as 409, and the Nasdaq was unchanged at 2754 after being down 68 points. The S&P 500 slipped 4 to 1353, and the Dow lost 34 to 10,693. Volume declined to 490 million shares on the NYSE, and was unchanged at 1 billion on the Nasdaq. Decliners led 15 to 10 on the NYSE, and 21 to 12 on the Nasdaq. The Federal Reserve meets next Tuesday and Wednesday. For earnings reports, visit our earnings calendar at http://www.wsrn.com/apps/earnings/internet.xpl and reported earnings at http://www.wsrn.com/apps/earnings/ireported.xpl. For after hours quotes and news, visit our after hours trading site at http://www.afterhourstrading.com.

PMC Sierra plunged 34 11/16 to 71 3/16 after guiding first-quarter sales sharply lower. The warning weighed on Cisco , down 2 7/8 to 36 7/16, a big PMCS customer. Broadcom was off 5/16 to 103 11/16 after trading as low as 95.

JDS Uniphase , up 3 1/16 to 58 1/4, beat estimates but lowered forward guidance. Qualcomm , up 4 5/8 to 78 9/16, also topped estimates.

Art Technology soared 8 7/16 to 33 7/16 after beating estimates and raising forward guidance. But competitor BroadVision fell 1 15/16 to 12 15/16 after missing estimates. E.piphany , up 2 9/16 to 38 13/16, also beat estimates.

Looksmart , off 11/164 to 3 3/8, missed its numbers. Sapient , down 1 3/16 to 15 7/16, met estimates. [email protected] , down 1 1/8 to 6 13/32, met estimates but warned about future results.

SonicWall , up 1 1/4 to 19 1/8, beat estimates, but better than expected numbers didn’t help Blue Martini , which slipped 1 to 10 1/2. Corvis , down 3 13/16 to 19 11/16, met estimates.

Homestore.com soared 4 15/16 to 34 1/8 after beating estimates and raising forward guidance. eToys , down 1/32 to 1/4, missed estimates. Egghead.com slipped 1/8 to 1 3/32 after warning of lower than expected revenues.

Packeteer , up 3 1/4 to 16 3/4, met estimates with 2-cent earnings. Cobalt , down 1 1/8 to 3 7/8, issued an earnings warning. Neoforma rose 3/16 to 1 11/16 despite issuing an earnings warning.

Netegrity surged 5 9/16 to 53 3/4 after beating estimates. Globix slipped 5/16 to 6 5/8 despite topping estimates. Speechworx fell 8 to 34 despite beating estimates. BackWeb slipped 1/4 to 4 3/16 despite topping estimates. IntraNet Solutions tacked on 5/8 to 44 after beating estimates.

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The Nasdaq 100 bounced off its broken September downtrend line this morning (first chart), a good sign for the bulls. The S&P 100 is also comfortably above its downtrend line (second chart). The ability to weather a warning from a high-flyer like PMC Sierra is a big plus.

The Nasdaq once again began to fill its gap at 2618.55, and once again stopped, the decline halted by the index’s downtrend line (the corresponding gap in the Nasdaq 100 is 2470.72). While we’d like to see that downside lure removed, the index’s strength at that level is a plus, since those gaps occurred on a breakout, and the broken downtrend lines held. The maximum downside expected is about 2500, the lower channel boundary (black line) in that chart.

The ISDEX also refuses to fill its gap at 388; that gap also occurred on a downtrend line breakout. Maximum downside expected on that index is 380-388, where it broke out recently.

The S&P 500 broke down out of its smaller rising channel (the gray lines) today, but then recovered. Maximum expected downside would be that lower black channel line at 1310.

The Dow is once again the weak link, dangerous sector rotation that we’re getting tired of warning about. Hopefully another rate cut next week will bring the indexes into alignment. We expect that broken downtrend line at about 10,550 to hold, if the index gets that low, and 10,500 has also been strong support. Critical support is 10,300 on the Dow, and a close above 11,007 would be bullish, particularly if the Dow Transports can get back above 3000 and stay there. The Trannies are at 2950 today.

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