Industry researcher Gartner Dataquest said the one billionth PC shipped in
April 2002, while flat growth of late is expected to pick up pace, as
broadband penetration increases and emerging markets adopt PCs at feverish
rates.
While it took 25 years for one billion PCs to ship, Gartner predicts the two
billionth PC will ship in just six years’ time. Gartner banks on the
industry overcoming some tough recent times by looking to countries like
China.
The catch for the PC industry, in Gartner’s prediction, is that skyrocketing
growth, above all, has been fueled by the brutal price wars that have driven
down the costs of PCs. Gartner Dataquest analyst Martin Reynolds credits
Dell with revolutionizing the industry, paving the way for PCs to become a
mass-produced commodity and leading the way to the industry consolidation
that produced the HP-Compaq marriage.
“The PC industry has evolved into an intensely competitive environment,”
Reynolds said. “Companies that struggle today would be ferocious and
unstoppable competitors in other businesses.”
While the PC industry’s long-term outlook might be rosy, it still has a raft
of short-term problems to deal with. Earlier this year, Gartner published
research showing 2001 was a year to forget for the industry, with global
economic stagnation causing a decline in year-end shipment totals for only
the second time in 25 years.
Worldwide, 128 million PCs were shipped in 2001, down 4.6 percent from a
year earlier. In the United States, PC shipments dropped 11 percent, to 44
million units, as consumers put off buying new computers and businesses cut
deep into IT budgets.
With economic conditions not rapidly improving this year, the worldwide PC
market has remained flat, according to Gartner’s first-quarter market
analysis. In the United States, PC sales picked up 2.3 percent from last
year’s first quarter, giving a glimmer of hope that demand would return to
its normal acceleration rates.
The increased demand was largely driven by the consumer market, especially
in the demand for mobile PCs, according to the researcher. Meanwhile, the
corporate market has remained sluggish, with Gartner analyst Charles
Smulders saying the large-accounts market showed no sign of growth, causing an uncertain outlook for the market in 2002.
Reynolds pegged continuing to lower costs, which have come down enough to put a computer
within range of the budgets of most American households, as an important factor for the PC industry to return to sharp growth rates. But the key, he said, is
untapped markets abroad: emerging markets with much lower per capita
income.
“Lowering costs will be the greatest challenge for the industry in the next
six years,” he said.
