Old Lows Revisited

July 3, 2002

The stock market revisited some old lows on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 closing just above its September low and the Nasdaq just above its October 1998 low.

The ISDEX http://www.wsrn.com/apps/ISDEX/ fell 3 to 96, and the Nasdaq lost 45 to 1357, less than a point above its October 1998 intraday low. The S&P 500 fell 20 to 948, just 3 points above its September intraday low, and the Dow dropped 107 to 9007. Volume soared to 1.75 billion shares on the NYSE, but declined to 2.69 billion on the Nasdaq. However, WorldCom volume was 700 million shares lower today than yesterday, so volume rose on the rest of the Nasdaq. Decliners led 24 to 8 on the NYSE, and 25 to 8 on the Nasdaq.

After the close, Research in Motion topped estimates, while Openwave , i2 , Micromuse , Kana and E.piphany warned.

During the day, WorldCom doubled to 12 cents a share on hopeful talk from CEO John Sidgmore.

Check Point bounced nicely off a new 52-week low.

Netflix surged 14% on positive subscriber data.

Advent Software plunged 29% on a warning, and Rational Software slipped 1% after lowering revenue estimates.

National Semi fell 16% on a downgrade.

Some technical comments on the market: Note: To see the charts in the text email newsletter, click on the internetstockreport.com story link at the top of the newsletter.

Some nice selling today, with an 88% downside volume day on the NYSE and yet another TRIN close above 2.0. Another day or two like today and the market could be ready for a nice bounce, particularly if there are no terrorist attacks over the Fourth of July (something we all hope for) and Friday’s unemployment report comes in favorably. The S&P 500 (first chart) hit its minimum downside target today, just above the September low of 944.75. Below that, the October 1998 low was 923. Some see the long-term S&P chart as a massive head-and-shoulders top, and it is sitting right on the neckline. That pattern measures to about 350 on the S&P, and it’s hard to see much support on the index below 923 until 500 or so, although buyers can of course come in at anytime (a recent Federal Reserve study pegged fair value at about 876 on the S&P). The Nasdaq (second chart) closed right above its October 1998 intraday low of 1357.09 after piercing it. Below that the target becomes anyone’s guess; 1315-1326 is one potential area, 1300 is another, and there’s also the index’s long-term trendline at 1200 (see third chart below). The Dow (fourth chart) has support at 8926, and 8835-8877 was our measured downside target on the index, with potential to 8800 or lower. To the upside, if this thing can reverse, it’s hard to see real resistance until 9200-9250 on the Dow, 980 on the S&P, and as high as 1440-1480 on the Nasdaq. The VIX (fifth chart) remains below its recent top in the 36 area, giving the indexes more downside potential until that level is tested again.

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