Sideways After Seven Days: ISDEX Paces the Broader Market

With most of the first quarter revenue and earnings (or losses) posted, investors haven’t been disappointed with actual results vs. expectations. Most of the 60%-plus run in ISDEX year to date was on the “real business” and bottom-line nature of the firms starting to emerge. So far.


>From Yahoo!’s (NASDAQ:YHOO) better-than-expected earnings per share to Amazon’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) narrower-than-expected losses, most of the discounted hoo haa in the group as a whole has been met. Netscape’s (NASDAQNSCP) 20% run since April 28 came on its $70 million deal with Excite (NASDAQ:XCIT) where the latter will pay to provide it search services on NetCenter over the next two years in return for ad revenue splits.


But today’s spotlight will definitely be on AOL (NYSE:AOL) as the bellwether (in our opinion) releases its quarterly revenue and earnings data today.


Street estimates call for AOL to report $0.12 earnings per share but we think it may do a little better based on the growing marketing, advertising and long-distance phone service sellthrough of and to its members.


Despite being lambasted for its proprietary service, we think AOL represents the only end-to-end Internet stock with its brand, membership, access revenue, global clout, content, and pioneering features that tend to define the Webscape for others.


AOL’s earnings will likely be rocket fuel for its stock, or if worse than expected, a huge sucking sound may be heard coming from headquarters in Vienna, VA as investors look elsewhere for growth in this space.


In short, if AOL posts strong EPS then it could further establish it as the flagship Internet stock. If not then a handful of upstarts could fill the slot. Which ones? The search and navigation stocks or consumer ISPs in the table below:


ISDEX April 28 -May 5












































































































































































































































































































































































































































































































 

 

05-May-98

% change

Point change

% change

 

 

close

from

from

from

 

 

 

28-Apr-98

28-Apr-98

31-Dec-97

 

 

 

 

 

 

ISDEX Avg.

 

163.89

1.1%

1.76

64.1%

ISDEX Price Wtd.

 

1,700.25

2.7%

44.03

63.2%

NASDAQ

 

1,864.91

1.8%

33.15

18.8%

DJIA

 

9,147.57

2.8%

248.61

15.7%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Netscape

NSCP

$30.13

20%

$5.06

24%

America Online

AOL

$89.50

19%

$14.38

98%

IDT Corp

IDTC

$32.56

15%

$4.19

61%

CNET

CNWK

$37.56

15%

$4.78

27%

Doubleclick

DCLK

$41.63

12%

$4.38

145%

Concentric

CNCX

$25.13

11%

$2.50

183%

Lycos

LCOS

$64.59

11%

$6.22

56%

@Home Network

ATHM

$36.63

11%

$3.50

46%

CMG Info

CMGI

$98.44

10%

$9.06

225%

Sportsline USA

SPLN

$36.75

10%

$3.38

242%

Spyglass

SPYG

$11.75

10%

$1.06

138%

CKS Group

CKSG

$22.88

9%

$1.88

62%

E*TRADE

EGRP

$25.00

8%

$1.81

9%

Network Associates

NETA

$70.84

6%

$3.97

34%

Network Solutions

NSOL

$48.75

5%

$2.44

271%

NewsEdge

NEWZ

$14.06

5%

$0.69

5%

Onsale

ONSL

$26.56

4%

$1.06

48%

Earthlink Network

ELNK

$68.00

4%

$2.50

164%

Broadvision

BVSN

$18.63

4%

$0.66

187%

Security First Net Bank

SFNB

$11.00

3%

$0.31

52%

Intuit

INTU

$52.88

3%

$1.50

28%

Open Text

OTEXF

$19.75

2%

$0.38

48%

Secure Computing

SCUR

$11.69

2%

$0.19

-1%

PairGain

PAIR

$18.50

1%

$0.13

-5%

Axent

AXNT

$26.56

1%

$0.16

54%

Cylink

CYLK

$13.25

0%

$0.06

36%

Excite

XCIT

$66.75

0%

$0.28

123%

Egghead.com

EGGS

$9.81

0%

$0.00

51%

CDnow

CDNW

$28.69

-1%

-$0.31

79%

Yahoo!

YHOO

$116.75

-1%

-$1.75

69%

Verisign

VRSN

$36.06

-2%

-$0.56

158%

Security Dynamics

SDTI

$23.44

-2%

-$0.38

-34%

CheckPoint Software

CHKPF

$30.75

-2%

-$0.63

-25%

Amazon.Com

AMZN

$93.72

-2%

-$1.91

56%

CyberCash

CYCH

$20.78

-3%

-$0.56

64%

Open Market

OMKT

$18.22

-3%

-$0.53

89%

Infoseek

SEEK

$32.03

-3%

-$0.97

198%

Broadband Technologies

BBTK

$7.75

-3%

-$0.25

88%

Metricom

MCOM

$10.13

-4%

-$0.38

5%

CheckFree

CKFR

$24.72

-4%

-$0.97

-8%

Versant Object Technologies

VSNT

$5.94

-4%

-$0.25

-57%

Mecklermedia

MECK

$23.63

-5%

-$1.13

-5%

RealNetworks

RNWK

$30.38

-7%

-$2.13

119%

Mindspring

MSPG

$63.25

-8%

-$5.50

88%

PSINet

PSIX

$12.84

-8%

-$1.16

151%

USWeb

USWB

$24.69

-9%

-$2.44

163%

N2K

NTKI

$22.50

-10%

-$2.44

54%

Cyberguard

CYBG

$14.31

-10%

-$1.63

154%

VocalTec

VOCLF

$16.81

-10%

-$1.94

-18%

WavePhore

WAVO

$13.31

-11%

-$1.69

42%

SIMPLE AVERAGE

 

34.01

3%

0.94

63%

TOTAL

 

1,700.25

3%

47.03

63%

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