With most of the first quarter revenue and earnings (or losses) posted, investors haven’t been disappointed with actual results vs. expectations. Most of the 60%-plus run in ISDEX year to date was on the “real business” and bottom-line nature of the firms starting to emerge. So far.
>From Yahoo!’s (NASDAQ:YHOO) better-than-expected earnings per share to Amazon’s (NASDAQ:AMZN) narrower-than-expected losses, most of the discounted hoo haa in the group as a whole has been met. Netscape’s (NASDAQNSCP) 20% run since April 28 came on its $70 million deal with Excite (NASDAQ:XCIT) where the latter will pay to provide it search services on NetCenter over the next two years in return for ad revenue splits.
But today’s spotlight will definitely be on AOL (NYSE:AOL) as the bellwether (in our opinion) releases its quarterly revenue and earnings data today.
Street estimates call for AOL to report $0.12 earnings per share but we think it may do a little better based on the growing marketing, advertising and long-distance phone service sellthrough of and to its members.
Despite being lambasted for its proprietary service, we think AOL represents the only end-to-end Internet stock with its brand, membership, access revenue, global clout, content, and pioneering features that tend to define the Webscape for others.
AOL’s earnings will likely be rocket fuel for its stock, or if worse than expected, a huge sucking sound may be heard coming from headquarters in Vienna, VA as investors look elsewhere for growth in this space.
In short, if AOL posts strong EPS then it could further establish it as the flagship Internet stock. If not then a handful of upstarts could fill the slot. Which ones? The search and navigation stocks or consumer ISPs in the table below:
ISDEX April 28 -May 5
05-May-98 | % change | Point change | % change | ||
close | from | from | from | ||
28-Apr-98 | 28-Apr-98 | 31-Dec-97 | |||
ISDEX Avg. | 163.89 | 1.1% | 1.76 | 64.1% | |
ISDEX Price Wtd. | 1,700.25 | 2.7% | 44.03 | 63.2% | |
NASDAQ | 1,864.91 | 1.8% | 33.15 | 18.8% | |
DJIA | 9,147.57 | 2.8% | 248.61 | 15.7% | |
Netscape | NSCP | $30.13 | 20% | $5.06 | 24% |
America Online | AOL | $89.50 | 19% | $14.38 | 98% |
IDT Corp | IDTC | $32.56 | 15% | $4.19 | 61% |
CNET | CNWK | $37.56 | 15% | $4.78 | 27% |
Doubleclick | DCLK | $41.63 | 12% | $4.38 | 145% |
Concentric | CNCX | $25.13 | 11% | $2.50 | 183% |
Lycos | LCOS | $64.59 | 11% | $6.22 | 56% |
@Home Network | ATHM | $36.63 | 11% | $3.50 | 46% |
CMG Info | CMGI | $98.44 | 10% | $9.06 | 225% |
Sportsline USA | SPLN | $36.75 | 10% | $3.38 | 242% |
Spyglass | SPYG | $11.75 | 10% | $1.06 | 138% |
CKS Group | CKSG | $22.88 | 9% | $1.88 | 62% |
E*TRADE | EGRP | $25.00 | 8% | $1.81 | 9% |
Network Associates | NETA | $70.84 | 6% | $3.97 | 34% |
Network Solutions | NSOL | $48.75 | 5% | $2.44 | 271% |
NewsEdge | NEWZ | $14.06 | 5% | $0.69 | 5% |
Onsale | ONSL | $26.56 | 4% | $1.06 | 48% |
Earthlink Network | ELNK | $68.00 | 4% | $2.50 | 164% |
Broadvision | BVSN | $18.63 | 4% | $0.66 | 187% |
Security First Net Bank | SFNB | $11.00 | 3% | $0.31 | 52% |
Intuit | INTU | $52.88 | 3% | $1.50 | 28% |
Open Text | OTEXF | $19.75 | 2% | $0.38 | 48% |
Secure Computing | SCUR | $11.69 | 2% | $0.19 | -1% |
PairGain | PAIR | $18.50 | 1% | $0.13 | -5% |
Axent | AXNT | $26.56 | 1% | $0.16 | 54% |
Cylink | CYLK | $13.25 | 0% | $0.06 | 36% |
Excite | XCIT | $66.75 | 0% | $0.28 | 123% |
Egghead.com | EGGS | $9.81 | 0% | $0.00 | 51% |
CDnow | CDNW | $28.69 | -1% | -$0.31 | 79% |
Yahoo! | YHOO | $116.75 | -1% | -$1.75 | 69% |
Verisign | VRSN | $36.06 | -2% | -$0.56 | 158% |
Security Dynamics | SDTI | $23.44 | -2% | -$0.38 | -34% |
CheckPoint Software | CHKPF | $30.75 | -2% | -$0.63 | -25% |
Amazon.Com | AMZN | $93.72 | -2% | -$1.91 | 56% |
CyberCash | CYCH | $20.78 | -3% | -$0.56 | 64% |
Open Market | OMKT | $18.22 | -3% | -$0.53 | 89% |
Infoseek | SEEK | $32.03 | -3% | -$0.97 | 198% |
Broadband Technologies | BBTK | $7.75 | -3% | -$0.25 | 88% |
Metricom | MCOM | $10.13 | -4% | -$0.38 | 5% |
CheckFree | CKFR | $24.72 | -4% | -$0.97 | -8% |
Versant Object Technologies | VSNT | $5.94 | -4% | -$0.25 | -57% |
Mecklermedia | MECK | $23.63 | -5% | -$1.13 | -5% |
RealNetworks | RNWK | $30.38 | -7% | -$2.13 | 119% |
Mindspring | MSPG | $63.25 | -8% | -$5.50 | 88% |
PSINet | PSIX | $12.84 | -8% | -$1.16 | 151% |
USWeb | USWB | $24.69 | -9% | -$2.44 | 163% |
N2K | NTKI | $22.50 | -10% | -$2.44 | 54% |
Cyberguard | CYBG | $14.31 | -10% | -$1.63 | 154% |
VocalTec | VOCLF | $16.81 | -10% | -$1.94 | -18% |
WavePhore | WAVO | $13.31 | -11% | -$1.69 | 42% |
SIMPLE AVERAGE | 34.01 | 3% | 0.94 | 63% | |
TOTAL | 1,700.25 | 3% | 47.03 | 63% |
