Shares of Internet infrastructure companies, the market’s leaders since May, continued to fall on Monday, led lower by Cisco Systems. Investors looking for a place to hide fled to blue chip stocks.
The ISDEX dropped 36 to 564, just above its May low, and the Nasdaq lost 115 to 3162. The S&P 500 climbed 3 to 1382, and the Dow surged 148 to 10,739, as investors snapped up shares of basic materials companies Alcoa and International Paper. Volume rose to 502 million shares on the NYSE, but declined to 740 million on the Nasdaq. Advancers led by 15 to 10 on the NYSE, but decliners led by 21 to 13 on the Nasdaq. For earnings reports, visit our earnings calendar and reported earnings. For after hours quotes and news, visit our after hours trading site.
Cisco Systems dropped 4 11/16 to 46, below the critical $50 level, after Lehman Brothers reduced its price target on the company from $90 to $60-$65. Lehman said the company was the best-positioned vendor, but that worries over capital spending could continue to hurt the stock. Cisco reports earning Nov. 6.
JDS Uniphase , which reported better-than-expected earnings on Thursday, dropped 5 3/8 to 71 7/8, wiping out all of Friday’s gains and then some. Juniper Networks
was off 11 1/8 to 160 7/8. Technical note: JNPR cannot close at 174 or lower, or it will break a broadening top, with potential downside to 120.
Among others, Lehman also cut price targets on Sycamore Networks , off 7 3/8 to 57 3/4, Redback
, down 12 3/16 to 101 7/8, and Sonus
, off 2 3/8 to 33 5/8.
About.com tacked on 1/2 to 24 3/8 after trading as high as 31 1/2 on news that it will be acquired by magazine publisher Primedia
for 2.3409 shares.
El Sitio slipped 3/16 to 3 11/16 after announcing it will be acquired by Ibero American Media Partners, a joint venture of Cisneros Group and Hicks Muse. Shareholders will get a stake in the new company.
Amazon.com fell 4 1/16 to 31 9/16 despite positive comments from Merrill Lynch, which said it is comfortable with the company’s fundamentals and cash position. Lehman Brothers had questioned the company’s cash position last week, a report reiterated in Barron’s today.
Some technical comments on the market: Note: We are now including charts with the technical market commentary; just click on the links in the story below to go to them. If you have trouble accessing the charts via the e-mail newsletter version, try this link: http://www.afterhourstrading.com/column.html
The Dow has looked very good lately as investors seek a safe place to hide, but we’ve got to wonder whether that can continue. Here’s why: using the Dow’s October 1998 trendline as the lower boundary, the index turned back exactly at the apex of the broken bearish diamond pattern at 10,792 this morning. That is exactly what we had hoped not to see today. For those of you with a copy of Edwards & Magee’s Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, a book well worth owning, there is an example of a diamond pattern (Hudson Motors in 1946, page 185) tracing out the exact same move: a sell-off to the previous reaction low (9,700), a retracement to the apex (in Hudson’s case, the upper trendline), and then a major sell-off. To the upside, we want to get through 10,800-10,900 soon, or we could have substantial downside ahead. If we c
an get through 10,800-10,900, the threat of a major sell-off would be greatly reduced. Finally, even though the Dow’s action has been very positive as of late, it could still be viewed as a bear flag.
The Nasdaq is once again testing its September downtrend line. We would not view another test of the 3000 level favorably; the problem with horizontal support is that it can be eventually exhausted. To the upside, we want to see the Nasdaq 100 fill the gap in the 3283-3326 range. That gap formed an island reversal last week. The Nasdaq 100 needs to get above 3326 to fill that gap and negate the reversal.
The ISDEX is once again testing its May low and broken September downtrend line. Below that, 500 could be next support. To the upside, 600 is first resistance, then 650, and then 700 has proven to be tough resistance after that. The S&P 500 has so far managed to hold its 1994 logarithmic trendline at about 1350. The S&P cannot close below that line by more than 2%, or 1323. The S&P ran into resistance at its highest September downtrend line. That index too could be forming a bear flag.
