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Unique User Values Climb 3.4 Percent

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Jul 22, 1999

The average value per unique user went from about $60 just over a year ago to about $600 for the top 10 Web sites. The past week value has increased 3.4% while the median gained 11.1% to $530.

Unique user stats are from audience measurement firm Media Metrix but the valuation work here is based on comparables, public and private deals, growth, revenue and brand.

WEBDEX	Unique	7-12-99	7-21-99	7-12-99	7-21-99	Percent
website user valuation	Users	Market cap or PMV*	Market cap or PMV*	User	User	change
	(millions)	(millions)	(millions)	Value	Value
AOL.com*	47.2	$22,500	$25,000	$477	$530	11.1%
Yahoo	37.1	$30,707	$31,039	$828	$837	1.1%
Microsoft.com*	32.9	$27,500	$30,000	$836	$912	9.1%
Lycos	30.0	$4,494	$4,404	$150	$147	-2.0%
GO Network (SEEK)	20.8	$2,838	$2,533	$136	$122	-10.7%
Excite@Home	17.1	$12,944	$11,813	$756	$690	-8.7%
Time Warner online*	12.3	$2,500	$2,750	$203	$223	10.0%
Amazon.com	12.2	$18,963	$20,266	$1,558	$1,665	6.9%
Go2Net	10.2	$2,082	$2,017	$205	$198	-3.1%
AltaVista*	9.9	$2,500	$2,650	$252	$268	6.0%
TOTAL	$ 220	$ 124,528	$ 129,822	$ 5,149	$ 5,324	3.4%
AVERAGE	$ 24	$ 13,836	$ 14,425	$ 572	$ 592	3.4%
MEDIAN	$ 21	$ 12,944	$ 11,813	$ 477	$ 530	11.1%

*pmv=estimated private market value for Web site only; user stats from MediaMetrix.

For the first time ever portal in the making Go2Net (NASDAQ:GNET) cracks the top 10 with 10.2 million users/month. That’s about $200 per set of eyeballs, the second-lowest valuation per user of the top 10.

GNET was added to the HotWatch list back in January at under $10 a share. If CMGI (NASDAQ:CMGI) is willing to value AltaVista at $2.77 billion when it announced its bid for 83% of the search directory owned by Compaq then that implies GNET ought to find a similar value.

Based on the features it provides, Go2Net may have more girth than AltaVista with its HyperMart, auctions, search, finance community, and reach advantage.

One of the biggest disappointments has been Disney’s fumbling of Infoseek (NASDAQ:SEEK) which shows only a $122 value per unique user. That’s the kind of number that triggers thoughts of two things 1) bargain or 2) bin.

Longer range, Go Network may be a go.

Note the premium placed on Amazon.com (NASDAQ:AMZN) users, because they are buyers more often than not. Not browsers. Amazon now represents a threat to Softbank more than anyone else.

Softbank got behind Webvan, a warehouse delivery startup. What do you think Amazon is doing building warehouses? Same thing: sell everything, warehouse everything.

Finally, Microsoft.com has been difficult to value because of its enigmatic parts. But with what could be about $800 million in annual revenue putting an aggressive multiple of revenue on that, adding some brand bang, Microsoft.com could have a value of $30 billion.

Come on Bill, go ahead and IPO it, the tracking stock is needed to fight the Web wars ahead.

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Unique User Values Climb 3.4 Percent

Steve Harmon

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