Winners/Losers In ISDEX

AOL, eBay, Mindspring all beat the Street’s expectations with a few of the toppers finding their way to the pole position of ISDEX performers. As a group the 50-stock bellwether ends up 9% since April 21.

However, under the surface the number of new issues clamoring to get out the IPO gate may dilute the market soon if the unchecked “.com” IPO-spamming continues. Apparently the correction just over a week ago wasn’t enough reality check for spec hunters.

That means I can see a possible 10% to 15% correction looming if the less than quality deals go public.

What the no-branders, no marketshare stocks going public do is water down the existing market at first and then could cause a flight to quality, sending the better established stocks up again.

That mini-pattern played out the past two weeks. I suspect we may see it again soon.

Of the leaders here note the ascendency of the security software sector, Security Dynamics (NASDAQ:SDTI), Network Associates (NASDAQ:NETA), CheckPoint Software (NASDAQ:CHKP) and Axent (NASDAQ:AXNT).

But the group still traded down from where they began the year, one of the few Internet sectors that hasn’t had the runs seen in most other areas. Tally ho:


























































































































































































































































































































































































































ISDEX ®

 

27-Apr-99

% change

Point change

The Internet Stock Index

 

close

from

from

www.isdex.com

 

 

21-Apr-99

21-Apr-99

 

 

 

 

 

ISDEX

 

636.99

9.1%

53.21

NASDAQ

 

2,602.41

4.6%

113.33

DJIA

 

10,831.71

2.4%

250.29

 

 

 

 

 

Mindspring

MSPG

$ 116.31

26%

$23.81

eBay

EBAY

$ 209.25

25%

$42.50

Security Dynamics

SDTI

$ 22.00

25%

$4.38

Network Associates

NETA

$ 13.75

24%

$2.69

Broadvision

BVSN

$ 63.50

22%

$11.50

E*TRADE

EGRP

$ 119.44

21%

$20.94

VocalTec

VOCLF

$ 12.06

21%

$2.06

Axent

AXNT

$ 10.13

16%

$1.38

Onsale

ONSL

$ 27.69

15%

$3.69

Amazon.Com

AMZN

$ 205.88

15%

$26.63

Excite

XCIT

$ 156.63

14%

$19.63

Security First Technologies

SONE

$ 120.38

14%

$14.63

CheckPoint Software

CHKPF

$ 37.75

12%

$4.00

Beyond.com

BYND

$ 30.19

11%

$3.06

Open Market

OMKT

$ 14.06

9%

$1.19

CDnow

CDNW

$ 15.19

9%

$1.25

@Home Network

ATHM

$ 154.25

9%

$12.31

CMG Info

CMGI

$ 268.13

9%

$21.38

Exodus

EXDS

$ 91.06

8%

$7.06

Preview Travel

PTVL

$ 25.13

8%

$1.94

America Online

AOL

$ 153.00

7%

$10.25

Broadcom

BRCM

$ 78.38

7%

$5.25

CNET

CNET

$ 128.13

7%

$8.38

Broadcast.com

BCST

$ 134.13

7%

$8.63

Inktomi

INKT

$ 126.50

7%

$7.88

Cisco

CSCO

$ 115.06

7%

$7.13

Infospace.com

INSP

$ 133.19

6%

$7.69

Yahoo!

YHOO

$ 184.50

6%

$9.63

GeoCities

GCTY

$ 122.13

5%

$6.13

Doubleclick

DCLK

$ 148.50

5%

$6.81

iVillage

IVIL

$ 95.13

5%

$4.13

Egghead.com

EGGS

$ 14.75

4%

$0.56

PSINet

PSIX

$ 58.44

4%

$2.06

Sportsline USA

SPLN

$ 44.00

2%

$1.00

Earthlink Network

ELNK

$ 70.63

2%

$1.25

Cyberian Outpost

COOL

$ 15.63

2%

$0.25

Prodigy

PRGY

$ 30.31

1%

$0.31

ISS Group

ISSX

$ 54.63

1%

$0.38

24/7 Media

TFSM

$ 47.75

-1%

-$0.25

Lycos

LCOS

$ 100.94

-1%

-$0.56

Verio

VRIO

$ 68.50

-4%

-$2.50

Xoom.com

XMCM

$ 73.13

-5%

-$3.63

RealNetworks

RNWK

$ 181.13

-5%

-$9.19

Concentric

CNCX

$ 79.94

-5%

-$4.31

Infoseek

SEEK

$ 55.00

-7%

-$3.88

USWeb

USWB

$ 26.81

-7%

-$1.94

CyberCash

CYCH

$ 16.56

-7%

-$1.25

Go2Net

GNET

$ 162.88

-8%

-$14.63

Network Solutions

NSOL

$ 83.31

-9%

-$8.69

Verisign

VRSN

$ 124.06

-15%

-$21.56

News behind some moves:

  • 99.04.27 – StarMedia sets its IPO at 7 million shares with an $11 target. With 49.4 million shares outstanding that suggests an IPO market debut of $544 million. But I think if the market stays strong StarMedia, which serves Latin America with portal services, could boost share price to perhaps as high as $16 or perhaps $20.

    My suggestion to StarMedia: go for $20. Prodigy raised $120 million. At $20, StarMedia would raise $140 million, about what it’ll need to play across the wide expanse of Latin America.

  • 99.04.27 – eBay (NASDAQ:EBAY) revenue jumps 469% to $34 million while its net income is $9.5 million or $0.05 EPS. Analyst consensus was $0.02. The personal trading community auction traffic grew 69% to 22.9 million auctions while registered users more than doubled to 3.8 million.
  • 99.04.26 – Network Associates (NASDAQ:NETA) climbs 14% to $12.625 per share on no news. NETA trades at just off its 52-week low following the recent announcement of a possible sales slowdown in second quarter. First quarter was in line with analyst estimates. Perhaps the biggest concern now to me is the slew of lawsuits Network Associates has over its accounting habits.
  • 99.04.23 – ONSALE (NASDAQ:ONSL) rises 14% to $27.375 per share as enthusiasm from the etail and auction space boils over to stocks overlooked. The irony is ONSALE was one of the first public Internet auction companies but uBID (NASDAQ:UBID) seems to be getting more attention from Wall Street. My analysis shows ONSL had 331% more revenue than UBID in 1998 but ONSL trades at 84% that of UBID on a market cap basis.
  • 99.04.22 – Beyond.com (NASDAQ:BYND) finally shows some of the promise I’ve been waiting for all year (and why it was on my hot list in January). BYND posts $18.8 million loss with sales of $19.1 million vs. $2.2 million loss on $6.2 million sales 1Q98. First Call shows target loss expected to be $0.74 per share.

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