History lesson: Pioneers land on North America, head west and find ocean.
Pioneers land in Australia, head west and find desert. In the Web site
value arena we think that lesson applies closely. Some of the sites shown
on the list below are headed for California while others may soon discover
a seething desert.
Said another way, plugging in a Web site into a general purpose value
equation is fruitless. Each is headed its own way. No more than downtown
Manhattan is worth more than downtown Podunk. Yet the question we keep
hearing many investors ask is “why isn’t (fill in the blank for your
favorite Web site) worth as much as blank? A specific example: Why isn’t
Infoseek as valued as Excite?
It’s a real estate game. Much of it is where the particular Web site may be
in 24 to 36 months–geologic time in Internet years. A Web property is only
as valuable as a going concern, or as valuable as its vision and
leadership. What was CompuServe or Prodigy worth in 1990? And today?
So the next time you see a stock message board stacked sky high with the
suggestion that one firm should be worth $X because its rivals are trading
at $X remember that the Edsel was able to drive from point A to point B but
nobody gave a hoot.
Enough travel lessons for one day. Check out our latest numbers:
WebSite Value Index
Mecklermedia’s | February | March 25 | April 1 | March 25 | April 1 | ||
WebSite Value Index | Unique | Market cap | Market cap | Percent | Value | Value | Percent |
© 1998 Mecklermedia. www.internet.com | Users | or est. PMV * | or est. PMV * | change | Per | Per | change |
Web Property | (millions) | (millions) | (millions) | User | User | ||
Yahoo | 31.3 | $ 4,044 | $ 4,483 | 11% | $ 129.20 | $ 143.23 | 11% |
Netscape.com* | 23.1 | $ 675 | $ 700 | 4% | $ 29.22 | $ 30.30 | 4% |
Microsoft.com* | 17.9 | $ 1,150 | $ 1,200 | 4% | $ 64.25 | $ 67.04 | 4% |
Excite | 16.5 | $ 792 | $ 870 | 10% | $ 48.02 | $ 52.73 | 10% |
AOL.com* | 14.1 | $ 1,150 | $ 1,250 | 9% | $ 81.56 | $ 88.65 | 9% |
Infoseek | 13.7 | $ 562 | $ 637 | 13% | $ 41.01 | $ 46.46 | 13% |
GeoCities* | 12.5 | $ 225 | $ 250 | 11% | $ 18.00 | $ 20.00 | 11% |
Lycos | 10.2 | $ 665 | $ 796 | 20% | $ 65.21 | $ 77.99 | 20% |
MSN.com | 8.3 | $ 500 | $ 475 | -5% | $ 60.24 | $ 57.23 | -5% |
AltaVista* | 7.6 | $ 225 | $ 235 | 4% | $ 29.61 | $ 30.92 | 4% |
TOTAL | $ 155 | $ 9,988 | $ 10,895 | 9% | $ 566 | $ 615 | 9% |
AVERAGE | $ 16 | $ 999 | $ 1,090 | 9% | $ 57 | $ 61 | 9% |
user numbers source: Relevant Knowledge; All others: Mecklermedia; PMV=est.
private market value
