Technical Analysis: Low-Volume Bounce

A low-volume bounce following a decline in rising volume yesterday; not a good start to this rally. Traders will have lots of news to key on tomorrow: GE’s earnings, the PPI, retail sales and Michigan sentiment. Not likely to be a boring day. Sentiment remains odd here. The equity put-call ratio closed at a very positive .88 today, but the VIX (first chart below), the options volatility index, hit another lower low today, a sign of complacency. Calls now outnumber puts at the 26 strike price on the QQQ, the Nasdaq 100 tracking stock, so 25 is shaping up to be support and 26 resistance for expiry next week. The indexes weren’t able to take out much resistance today, so we’ll see what they can do in tomorrow’s news-driven environment. The Nasdaq (second chart) stalled at the bottom of 1368-1375 resistance. If it can clear that level, 1390 looks very tough. 1347 and 1336 are support. On the Dow (third chart), 8250 and 8325 are resistance, and 8100, 8000 and 7900-7925 are support. On the S&P (fourth chart), 875 and 882 are resistance, and 862 and 843 are support.

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